Lok Sabha polls 2019: Will these eight states again help BJP reach a strong tally?

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With the election season gaining momentum ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is making all efforts to retain power.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and all BJP leaders have been actively campaigning across the nation. They are reaching out to the masses to promote the work done by their government in the last five years and appeal to again vote for the party in the upcoming general elections.

All 29 states and seven union territories will vote between April 11 and May 19 to elect the fresh government. The counting day is scheduled on May 23.

All states will contribute to making the next government, but the results of eight states will keep separate importance for the BJP. Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh were the eight states that put 216 out of 282 Lok Sabha seats into the BJP’s kitty in 2014 elections.

BJP will again pin the hope on these states in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls as if they repeat their performance, this will be a huge contribution in the possibility of the party retaining the power.

However, a lack of this performance will surely impact BJP’s overall poll result. This possibility cannot be ruled out considering the fact that the political scenario has become different in some states.

In Uttar Pradesh, where it had won 71 out of 80 seats, the political situation is different from last election. The two major parties of the state – Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party – have made a pre-poll alliance, while BJP’s main opponent Congress has changed the leadership in the state by inducting Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Jyotiraditya Scindia.

In Maharashtra, the party had contested with an alliance with Shiv Sena and other regional parties and won 23 out of 48 seats in 2014. The alliance is the same in the upcoming polls but the political condition is not. Factors like anti-incumbency on both Centre and state levels would impact the result. The Raju Shetti-led Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS), which has a good hold in western Maharashtra, has also broken alliance with BJP and in talks to join the Congress-led alliance in the state.

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Bihar politics has majorly changed from 2014 to 2019. The BJP which won 22 seats in the state, is now contesting on 17 seats only, in alliance with Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United). Whether the party repeats good performance in the state or lacks it, the result will definitely impact its final tally.

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In Jharkhand, the Congress, with a multi-party alliance, is hoping to erase the memories of the 2014 election when it drew a blank. However, the BJP has also made an alliance with the All-Jharkhand Students’ Union Party ahead of the polls. This is the first time that the AJSU has formally entered into a pre-poll alliance in Jharkhand with the BJP.

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BJP has received a major setback in three of these states – Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan – in last Assembly elections, where people voted out its government.

In Gujarat, the last assembly polls result was not as impressive as earlier. Its seat share dropped to 99 in 2017 from 115 in 2012.