Flood threat looms in PoK after India suspends Indus Waters Treaty

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The first tangible impact of India putting the Indus Waters Treaty, 1960 in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack was seen over the weekend when some excess water released by India suddenly increased the level of the Jhelum river in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), forcing the authorities to issue flood warnings to the locals.

Indian government officials confirmed to Moneycontrol that the country has stopped sending water discharge and flood warning messages regarding the Chenab, Jhelum and Sutlej rivers to Pakistan. One of the officials said the release of water through the Uri hydel dams on April 26 was a routine exercise at this time of the year resulting from ice melt and some pre-monsoon showers. The levels began receding again from April 27, the official said.

However, there has been no official statement from the Government of India yet on the matter.

Also Read: Turning Off The Tap: Tearing up the Indus treaty won’t bite Pak anytime soon.

The areas that were impacted include Muzaffarabad and the Hattian Bala districts in PoK. The river Jhelum traverses from Uri in India and enters PoK through the Chakothi village in Hattian Bala district.

According to media reports in Pakistan, a daily report issued by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) also confirmed an increase in water flow levels in the River Jhelum. However, the water level (nearly 47,000 cusecs) in the region did not qualify as a "flood" as per Pakistan's flood forecasting division (FFD). The division calls it a low flood when the water level ranges between 75,000 and 110,000 cusecs.

Lack of information relay to make it tough for Pakistan

The unpredictability in the flow of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) emanating from the absence of information relay is likely going to impact Pakistan the most in the coming months, especially during the monsoon.

For example, the water level of Chenab is currently lower than usual not only because of the dry season, but also because of three operational hydel dams built on the river in India’s Jammu and Kashmir. These are the Salal, Baglihar and Dulhasti projects.

Also Read: Suspending the Indus Water Treaty stops flow of information, gives India a window to accelerate hydropower projects.

Farmers in Pakistan’s Sialkot, Gujrat, Mandi Bahauddin, Hafizabad Sargodha, Gurjranwala and Jhang, through which the Chenab river flows, have been feeling the pinch due to lower than usual water levels.

However, during the monsoons India will also have to release excess water from time to time from the western rivers as its own storage capacities are limited.

Since India’s power plants in the Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh regions are run-of-river with low storage, it has to let go of the additional waters. To be sure, when it comes to all rivers (eastern or western) with regard to the IWT, India has the advantage being the upper riparian region.

India has also stopped sharing other information such as some irrigation statistics of the western rivers for the kharif and rabi seasons, the official said.