Suspending the Indus Water Treaty stops flow of information, gives India a window to accelerate hydropower projects  

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India on April 23 put the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan in abeyance after at least 26 people were killed in a terror attack in Jammu Kashmir’s Pahalgam. While the move is unprecedented as India never touched the treaty even during wars with Pakistan, government officials who deal with the treaty told Moneycontrol that there is no infrastructure ready on the western rivers that would specifically control the water released to Pakistan.

“Technically, we cannot say that water from the rivers will be stopped or controlled from today. There isn't any particular large dam ready on the western rivers at the moment that could directly regulate the waters. But what stops immediately are day-to-day information exchanges with our counterparts in Pakistan,” said an official from the Union Jal Shakti ministry.

India will stop sending flood warning messages regarding the Chenab, Jammu Tawi, Ravi and Sutlej rivers to Pakistan, something that is normally shared by India every year from July 1 to October 10. Other information includes some irrigation statistics of the western rivers for the kharif and rabi seasons, the official said.

Such input is important to Pakistan because it gets 80 percent (135 million acre feet) of water from the Indus and its tributaries. Moreover, 93 percent of this water is used for agricultural activities there.

India will also stop sharing river water discharge data with Pakistan. Inspection tours by Pakistan’s Commissioner of the Permanent Indus Commission will also be prohibited, the official added.

As per the treaty, India has unrestricted use of all the water of the "eastern rivers" of the Indus system—Sutlej, Beas and Ravi. Pakistan, meanwhile, was allowed to receive water from the "western rivers"—Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.

A former secretary of the power ministry, requesting anonymity, said India could probably now consider building a dam on the Indus, just like China is on its part of the Brahmaputra despite objections raised by India. “Obviously, Pakistan would not sit idle and would resort to arbitration, which will go on for years. But even if India begins mulling about such a project, it will put some pressure on Pakistan,” the former secretary said.

The Tulbul navigation project to store and divert waters of the Jhelum river was initiated by India, but there has been no update on its progress since 2016.

It will have to rely on its operational dams and hydropower projects such as Kishanganga (on the Jhelum tributary of the same name) to regulate some water flow to Pakistan. The government is likely to expedite the operation of the Shahpurkandi dam on the Ravi, a project under the Punjab government.

A boost to hydropower projects in India?

A senior official from India’s hydropower giant, NHPC, said it will help hydel projects in the region if the suspension of the treaty by India is for a longer duration.

“The biggest benefit of suspending the treaty would be to the ongoing hydroelectric projects in Jammu Kashmir and Ladakh. There is no measure of the number of productive hours and years we have wasted in giving justifications to Pakistan as it sought arbitration for almost every hydel project we planned in that region. All our projects there are delayed because Pakistan raises objections to the designs, which is also a delaying tactic,” said the official, adding that, on the contrary, Islamabad is not obliged as per the treaty to provide any information or justification for projects it takes up simply because it is beyond the Line of Control.

“The best thing about this development is that we can go ahead with our project plans and expedite work. But for this the suspension has to go on for some time as hydel projects take years,” said the official.

India has at least four hydel projects totalling at least 3,000 MW under construction in the Chenab Basin (a western river), which is likely to pick up pace now. Data from the power ministry, seen by Moneycontrol, showed that no hydropower project could be commissioned in Jammu and Kashmir in the last five years.

Pradeep Kumar Saxena, who served as India’s Indus Water Commissioner for over six years, wrote in NatStrat, a not-for-profit centre for research on strategic and security issues, that Pakistan often weaponises the treaty “as a political instrument, potentially spreading narratives about water theft and strategically impeding India's development in the Indus basin”.

Projects such as Kiru (624 MW), Kwar (540 MW), Kirthai I & II (1,320 MW) and Sawalkote (1,856 MW) are likely to be fast-tracked now.

Pakistan’s cards

While the treaty cannot be exited, it does contain a dispute resolution mechanism. First, the grievance has to be raised before the Permanent Indus Commission, then a neutral expert and eventually, a forum of arbitrators.

Previous examples include India’s Ratle project of 850 MW (on the Chenab) which went through arbitration. In fact, Pakistan raised as many as six objections on the 330 MW Kishangana project. “After resolving two legal issues through the Court of Arbitration, four technical disputes concerning the Kishanganga dam's design remained under discussion between India and Pakistan,” Saxena said.

According to Pakistan’s minister for power Sardar Awais Leghari, Pakistan will defend its right over the western rivers “with full force—legally, politically and globally.” He took to microblogging site X to call India's moves an act of “water warfare”.