Turning Off The Tap: Tearing up the Indus treaty won’t bite Pak anytime soon

Pakistan uses almost 93 percent of the waters from the rivers covered by the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) for agriculture, which comprises 24 percent of the country’s GDP. Yet, India putting the IWT on hold can only mildly dent Pakistan’s agriculture as of now, because the volume of water it gets  from the western rivers (Chenab, Jhelum, Indus) is 2.5 times more than what India gets from its eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi).

On April 25, the government stopped water from the Baglihar hydropower  dam on the Chenab and the Salal dam on the Ravi  after communicating to Pakistan the decision to put the IWT in abeyance.

Per the IWT, Pakistan gets 99 billion cubic metres (BCM) from the western rivers over which the country has exclusive rights, while India gets 41 BCM from the eastern rivers. One BCM is equivalent to one trillion litres.

Not only irrigation, Pakistan also uses these rivers in its region to power cities such as Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar, Muzaffarabad, Abbottabad, and so on.

Still, Pakistan might feel the pinch with the lack of information during monsoons, when flood warnings and data from India become crucial.

Limited leverage over the western waters

India has minimal water storage infrastructure on the western rivers to be able to regulate water flow to Pakistan. As for hydroelectric plants (HEPs), India has seven, all of which are small run-of-river projects with capacities between 44 MW (Chutak HEP on the Indus in Ladakh) and 690 MW (Salal HEP on the Chenab in J&K).

The issue with run-of river projects is that water storage in their reservoirs is generally minimal because they use the natural flow of the river to generate electricity. No mega HEP also means that India doesn't have a mega dam in the region as of now.

Secondly, India needs to be watchful about flooding its own region as well, which is prone to cloudbursts. For example, on April 22, the day of the Pahalgam attack, the government had to open the gates of the Salal HEP dam to ease the heavy flow of water into the Chenab due to continuous rains in Jammu and Kashmir's Reasi district.

“It would not be realistic to withhold water because each dam and HEP has its issues. In the coming months when the ice melts, followed by the monsoons, we cannot keep holding the water for the safety of our own citizens. Besides, monsoons are the peak season for the HEPs to operate and contribute to India's summer demand,” said a senior official from the Jal Shakti ministry.

What about the eastern rivers?

India has managed to build infrastructure to curtail water flow from the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi . It has the Shahpurkandi dam ready in Punjab after 45 years of delay, even as the hydropower plants that were a part of it are yet to be commissioned. India also has the Ranjit Sagar HEP dam on the Ravi, which has been operational since 2001.

On the Sutlej India has the Bhakra Nangal dam in Himachal Pradesh, while the Pong and Pandoh dams are on the Beas. There is also the Madhopur-Beas link (also known as Beas-Sutlej link) which is a canal system that diverts water from the Ravi to the Beas river basin.

The Ujh multipurpose project is an upcoming one, and  its progress is fairly slow due to the low return on investment projected by the union government.

“Once the Ujh project is commissioned, we can say that nearly all the water from the eastern rivers could be controlled,” said the official.

What next?

India must fast track planning and building water storage, canal, and hydel infrastructure along these rivers, especially the western ones. More than controlling water supply to Pakistan, India needs mega infrastructure on the larger western rivers for its own water consumption and agricultural activities.

“We need to find ways to drain the water in the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab within India. The Three Gorges Dam in China stores around 8 million acre feet (MAF) water — such a project is one option. We could also ape China's 36 MAF south-north water transfer project. Take water from Chenab, Jhelum, and give it away to other regions through canal systems,” said Tushar Gupta, an economic and infrastructure commentator on the social media platform X, adding that states such as J&K, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chandigarh, Delhi, and even Gujarat could benefit from such projects.

At least four dams and power projects are under construction on the western rivers. These are Kiru, Kwar, Ratle, and Pakal Dul. But experts said India needs projects on a much larger scale.