Coronavirus in India: Once considered COVID-19 hotspots, Delhi and Mumbai are flattening the curve

Delhi and Mumbai, once considered India’s largest COVID-19 hotspots, have shown clear signs of flattening the curve of novel coronavirus infections.

Over the last month, both centres have shown a significant drop in cases being reported every day.

As on July 26, the areas under Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)’s jurisdiction had reported total of 1.09 lakh COVID-19 cases since the pandemic started. New Delhi reported total of 1.3 lakh cases during the same period. Together, the two cities account for around 16 percent of India’s total caseload.

According to a bulletin issued by the Maharashtra Public Health Department on July 26, Mumbai had reported 1,09,161 COVID-19 cases. Of these, 80,238 have recovered. The death toll stands at 6,093.

However, there has been a downward trend with fewer than 1,350 COVID-19 daily cases being reported over the last week. In fact, on a couple of occasions, the rate dipped to around 900 cases per day.

The financial hub’s recovery rate now stands at around 73 percent with a doubling rate of 67 days.

Delhi has reported a total of 1,30,606 confirmed COVID-19 cases so far, according to the latest data from the Union Health Ministry. This includes a death toll of 3,827. As many as 1,14,875 patients have recovered so far.

Here too, fewer than 1,350 COVID-19 cases have been reported on a daily basis over the last seven days.

The national capital’s recovery rate stands at nearly 88 percent with a doubling rate of around 76 days.

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However, concerns remain for both cities. Other areas within the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) are yet to fully stabilise, data from the health department suggests.

Similarly in Delhi, the sero-prevalence study found that 23.4 percent of the people had been affected by COVID-19 in the city, which has several pockets of dense population. This indicates that a large number of infected persons remain asymptomatic, making it difficult to track a fresh spike.

Speaking to CNN-News18 last week, AIIMS Director and member of the National Task Force on COVID-19, Dr Randeep Guleria said: “Different parts of the country will peak at different times. Delhi is one such state where flattening of the curve is happening. It is happening in other areas of the country as well. Mumbai, Ahmedabad and certain parts of the South are showing a decline. They seem to have reached a plateau and are showing a downward trend.”

The two cities have been able to flatten the curve even as the number of confirmed cases in India are scaling fresh highs on a daily basis.

On July 27, nearly 50,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported in India in a day. The focus has now shifted to Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Bihar where infections are rising rapidly.

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