Bihar elections 2025: Rumblings within NDA ahead of seat-sharing talks as Chirag Paswan looks to upset JD(U) cart

Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar during a meeting in Patna on May 19. (PTI)

Seat-sharing talks among National Democratic Alliance partners ahead of the Assembly elections in Bihar are set to face a major hurdle as Union Minister for Food Processing Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) readies to flex its muscle and demand a considerable share for the forthcoming polls.

The LJP(RV) contested the 2020 Assembly elections outside the NDA over differences with JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar. Despite winning only one seat of the 135 it contested, the LJP had managed to inflict significant damage on the JD(U)'s poll performance.

Date from the 2020 polls shows that the LJP had polled more votes that the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) in 32 of the 38 seats where they were pitted against each other. In 26 of these, the number of votes polled in the LJP's favour was higher than the margin with which the JD(U) lost these seats. The LJP was the runner-up in five other seats while it bagged the Maithani seat by a narrow margin of 333 votes.

The JD(U), BJP, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and the Hindustani Awam Morcha had contested the elections under the NDA umbrella in the 2020 polls. As per the seat-sharing arrangement, the BJP contested 110 seats, the JD(U) 115, the VIP 11 and HAM at 7. Of them, the BJP emerged with the best strike rate winning 74 seats followed by the JD(U) at 43 and the VIP and HAM at 4 each.

The LJP(RV)'s return to the NDA fold in 2023 has made seat-sharing discussions has changed the situation within the NDA dramatically. The LJP(RV) benefitted from the return and bagged all five Lok Sabha seats it contested from, consolidating its party's presence and marking a turnaround for the party.

With official discussions on seat-sharing in the NDA set to begin soon, the LJP(RV) is set to stake its claim on a number of seats where it had performed well in the last elections.

"The LJP(RV) had contested independently while JD(U) and other allies were in alliance with the BJP (in 2020). They still lost those seats. If the LJP gets those seats, the NDA can comfortably defeat the Opposition," said an LJP(RV) leader told The Indian Express.

While the JD(U) admits that seat-sharing talks within NDA partners could be more intensive as compared to the previous elections, owing to the LJP(RV)'s return, the party has officially put up a brave face.

"Every political party wants to contest on the maximum number of seats. But the NDA is determined to make Bihar a developed state under the leadership of Nitish Kumar… There will be no conflict and seat-sharing will happen with understanding between allies," JD(U) spokesperson Anjum Ara said.

Chirag Paswan, on the other hand, is readying his party to take an aggressive stand during NDA seat-sharing negotiations. The party has planned Sankalp Sabhas in different parts of the state beginning June 8 in a bid to strengthen its position ahead of the seat-sharing talks.

LJP(RV) national spokesperson Dhirendra Kumar Sinha insists that winnability will be the sole criteria in candidate selection in the seats where the party dented the JD(U) in the previous elections.

"Social equations and performance in past elections will be key criteria for the decisions in seat-distribution," Sinha said.

While the NDA is trying to put up a brave face on the JD(U)-LJP(RV) tussle -- Chirag even met Nitish on May 19 and sought a proposal to confer the Bharat Ratna on LJP founder Ram Vilas Paswan -- the unease within is palpable and only expected to increase as the elections draw closer.