Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Petronet LNG
Lower realisation, volume impact earnings: Petronet LNG (PLNG) reported Q4FY18 EBITDA and PAT of Rs8.2bn (+33% YoY, -3% QoQ; PLe Rs9bn) and Rs5.2bn (+11% YoY, -1% QoQ; PL e Rs5.5bn), respectively. PLNG's total volumes were at 212tbtu (-5%QoQ) post restart of Dabhol LNG terminal in September. At the call, PLNG management clarified that demand momentum remains extremely strong from user industries like CGD, fertiliser and even power sector. Also, management sees no threat from new terminals like Mundra, Ennore etc given that PLNG remains the lowest cost terminal.
Outlook
We like PLNG's business model given high earnings visibility from India's growing reliance on imported LNG. Led by rising capacity and higher tariffs, we expect 20% earnings CAGR over FY18-20E with ROE of over 20%. Reiterate BUY with a DCF based PT of Rs300 (unchanged).
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