Motilal Oswal's research report on NMDC
Revenue stood in line with our estimate at INR70b, up 8% YoY and 7% QoQ, primarily driven by healthy volumes and NSR growth. Iron ore production stood at 13.3mt (flat YoY and QoQ), while sales stood at 12.7mt (+1% YoY and +6% QoQ) in 4QFY25. ASP stood at INR5,530/t (+7% YoY and flat QoQ) as iron ore prices remained firm sequentially. EBITDA stood at INR20.5b (-2% YoY and -14% QoQ) against our estimate of INR24.5b, dragged by high other expenses. EBITDA/t stood at INR1,620/t (- 3% YoY and -19% QoQ) during the quarter. APAT for the quarter stood at INR14.8b (+3% YoY and -22% QoQ) against our estimate of INR19.8b during the quarter. For FY25, the company reported revenue of INR239b (+12% YoY), EBITDA of INR81.5b (+12% YoY), and Adj PAT of INR65b (+13% YoY). Iron ore production for FY25 stood at 44mt (-2% YoY) and sales volume at 44.6mt, reporting flat YoY growth. Average blended NSR for FY25 stood at INR5,325/t (+15% YoY). EBITDA/t grew +11% YoY to INR1930/t.
Outlook
At CMP, NMDC trades at 4.5x EV/EBITDA on FY27E. We reiterate our BUY rating on NMDC with a TP of INR83 (based on 5.5x FY27E EV/EBITDA).
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