Indian bond yields opened down and the rupee surged in early trades on June 3 after most exit polls predicted a sweeping victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha polls.
News18 Mega Exit Poll predicted that the BJP will secure 305-315 Lok Sabha seats, while the NDA will bag 355-370 seats. The counting of votes will begin at 8am on June 4.
“Exit polls clearly signalled a strong show for the BJP to secure a third term with higher number of seats which, in turn, may attract flows from debt and equity, considering political stability. Thus, the exit polls remained equity, debt, bonds and rupee positive,” said Kunal Sodhani, vice-president of Shinhan Bank.
Mataprasad Pandey, vice-president of Arete Capital Service, said continuity of the leadership gives better clarity on the growth prospects of the country as the market understands the focus areas of the government.
The 10-year benchmark bond 7.10 percent 2034 opened at 6.9505 percent, as against 6.9809 percent close on May 31, according to the Clearing Corporation of India data.
The rupee opened at 82.99 against the dollar on June 3, as against 83.47 at close on Friday.
Sodhani said lower Brent crude prices also supported the rupee. For USDINR, 82.78 may act as an important support, while now a close above 83.30 may bring the USDINR pair back to consolidation.
The exit polls
According to the survey, the Congress may get only about 62-72 seats in the elections, while its Opposition INDIA bloc could end up with a tally of 125-140.
In 2019, the exit polls had predicted an average of 306 seats for the NDA and 120 for the UPA. The actual results were significantly higher for the NDA, which won 352 seats, with the BJP alone securing 303, while the UPA won only 93 seats, with the Congress getting 52.
This time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a target of over 400 seats for the NDA, with the BJP aiming for more than 370 seats.
The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95 percent of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for Phase 7 on June 1.
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