Closing Bell: Market snaps 5-day losing streak, Nifty above 24,300, Sensex up 603 points

Indian equity indices ended on strong note with Nifty above 24,300 on October 28. At close, the Sensex was up 602.75 points or 0.76 percent at 80,005.04, and the Nifty was up 158.40 points or 0.66 percent at 24,339.20.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The Nifty remained volatile during the day before closing with a meaningful gain after several days. On the downside, it sustained above the previous day's low, indicating strength in buying. Moving forward, this strength may persist as long as it stays above 24000. Only a decisive drop below 24000 might trigger panic in the market. On the higher end, resistance is seen at 24500, and a decisive move above this level could spark a rally in the Nifty.

Amid higher valuation concerns, markets had corrected sharply last week and hence the recovery was seen today. Also, short covering ahead of the monthly expiry this week triggered a rally in domestic markets, although the undertone remains cautious.

Markets opened the week on a positive note, gaining over half a percent, pausing after the recent decline. Following an initial dip, the Nifty recovered strongly, briefly testing the 24,500 resistance level in the first half; however, profit-taking in the latter half trimmed the day’s gains. Ultimately, it closed at 24,339.15, up by 0.6%. All major sectors contributed to the recovery, with metals, realty, and pharma among the top gainers. The broader indices also saw some relief, each gaining nearly a percent.

Participants should not read much into a single day rebound and await a decisive close above 24,500 to signal further recovery, as a failure to do so could lead to a resumption of the decline. Traders are advised to maintain a cautious approach, keeping positions balanced on both sides, with a focus on large-cap and mid-cap leaders while avoiding averaging down loss-making positions.

Indian markets commenced the truncated week on a firm note under the leadership of Banking counters and in the presence of a follow-through momentum, the Index compounded its gains for most of the session; however, in the last hour of the trading session, a reversal was seen which dragged the Index lower to end the session at 24,339.15 with gains of 158.35 points.

All the sectors ended the day in green with PSU Banks and Metal being the top performers. Mid and Smallcaps also surged by 0.83% & 1.20% respectively and outperformed the Benchmark Index.

The Index has made a Spinning Top candlestick pattern which suggests indecisiveness. We will wait for a convincing move above 24,600 where it will give a breakout from two different patterns: 1) a change in polarity and 2) Falling Wedge; whereas, on the lower side, the zone of 24,100-24,180 will act as a strong support area.

The market exhibited a rebound after continuous selloff last week. Positive results from banks and a slump in oil prices in expectation of an ease in retaliations in the Middle East aided investor sentiment.

Stability in the broad-based rally requires more evidence from earnings, which are currently in the doldrums of weak demand and margin pressure. We expect companies with a less leveraged balance sheet and growth prospects to outperform when the market stabilizes.

Indian rupee ended flat at 84.07 per dollar on Monday versus Friday's close of 84.08.

Indian equity indices ended on strong note with Nifty above 24,300 on October 28.

At close, the Sensex was up 602.75 points or 0.76 percent at 80,005.04, and the Nifty was up 158.40 points or 0.66 percent at 24,339.20. About 2470 shares advanced, 1357 shares declined, and 151 shares unchanged.

Biggest Nifty gainers included Shriram Finance, Adani Enterprises, ICICI Bank, Eicher Motors and Wipro, while losers were Coal India, Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Hero MotoCorp.

All the sectoral indices ended in the green with PSU Bank index rose 3.8 percent, Metal index added 2.5 percent, while pharma, media, realty up more than 1 percent each.

The BSE midcap index was up 0.7 percent and smallcap index gained 1 percent.

#1 Sharp miss in Q2 PBT led by groundings, related compensation, & unexpected fuel inflation

#2 Overhang was heightened seasonality in context of sharp uptick in demand/supply in prior year

#3 Overall demand trends remain healthy

#4 Modest decline in TRASK on high YoY base for Q3

#5 Lower FY27 estimate by 10 percent

#1 All-round performance in Q2; solidifies its leadership position

#2 Asset quality improves slightly; cost control impressive

#3 Business growth robust; NIM moderates

#4 Increase EPS estimate by 2.8 percent/1.8 percent for FY25/FY26 & estimate RoA/RoE of 2.19 percent/17.4 percent in FY26

QIB – 0.03times

NII – 0.38 times

Retail – 0.32 times

Employee Reserved – 0.92 times

Overall – 0.26 times

#1 Q2 PAT miss due to higher opex, partly offset by lower credit costs

#2 All eyes on forward flow into stress pool

#3 Management targets credit costs of 1.8-2 percent in FY25

#4 Growth to be driven by secured segment, NIM to remain under pressure

#5 Given current valuations, risk reward appears favourable given growth & RoA trajectory

The Sensex was up 795.03 points or 1.00 percent at 80,197.32, and the Nifty was up 215.50 points or 0.89 percent at 24,396.30.

The company board recommended the proposal of sub-division of equity hare having face value of Rs 2 each fully paid up into equity shares having face value of Re 1 each fully paid up.

#1 Profit declines 38 percent to Rs 159.1 crore Vs Rs 256.9 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue dips 1.8 percent to Rs 1,267.6 crore Vs Rs 1,291 crore, YoY

#1 Q2 net profit was ahead of estimate, mainly due to negative credit costs

#2 ECL provision coverage on stage 3 was down 3.4 percent, driving -0.1 percent (annualised) credit cost

#3 Last quarter management had indicated nagai power & TRN Energy were closest to resolution

#4 Loan growth was healthy, led by renewables, infrastructure and discom segments

#5 Maintain loan growth estimate of 16-17 percent over next three years

#1 Delivered yet another steady quarter

#2 Balancesheet growth remained in mid-teens, while NIM moderated 5-10 bps sequentially

#3 PpOP grew faster than NII, driven by operating leverage

#4 NII is expected to play out over course of year

#5 Gross NPL ratio was stable & credit costs were benign

#6 Among large banks, ICICI Bank has highest standard asset provisioning

#7 Bank’s LDR of 85 percent is comfortable, lower than peers

#8 Only fee income was a bit tepid, growing 13 percent YoY

#1 Q2 EBITDA margin ahead of consensus led by lower material costs & higher operational efficiency

#2 Outlook remains robust for core hospital clusters on the back of bed additions & improving mix

#1 Service stations’ situation is improving, though may still take time to fully normalise

#2 Company undergoing multiple initiatives to improve service quality

#3 Long-term product quality has to be focus

#4 Cut estimate due to slower than expected e-2w penetration and ongoing service issues

#1 Net Profit at Rs 96.7 cr vs Loss of Rs 58.3 cr (YoY)

#2 EBITDA at Rs 275 cr vs  EBITDA Loss of Rs 153.3 cr (YoY)

#3 Margin at 4.2%

#1 Net Loss: Rs 24 crore, compared to a profit of Rs 10.3 crore (YoY)

#2 Revenue: Rs 264.1 crore, down 41% from Rs 445.5 crore (YoY)

#3 EBITDA Loss: Rs 5 crore, compared to a profit of Rs 28.8 crore (YoY)

#1 Net Profit:  Rs 14 crore, up 49% from Rs 9.4 crore (YoY)

#2 Revenue: Rs 87 crore, up 42% from Rs 61.3 crore (YoY)

#3 EBITDA: Rs 22.7 crore, up 46% from Rs 15.6 crore (YoY)

#4 EBITDA Margin: 26.1%, compared to 25.4% (YoY)

Buoyed by softer University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations and a possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran, spot gold closed with a gain of 0.43% at $2,747 on Friday as it rose for the third straight week. Israel carried out air attack on Iranian military installations in Iran, Iraq and Syria in the weekend; however, damage was largely limited. Israel is said to have taken its much anticipated retaliatory action against Iran, which is why gold is under pressure today.

Presently, the yellow metal is trading around 0.5% lower at $2,733. Gold is expected to trade with a bearish tilt as elevated US yields are also exerting downside pressure. The ten-year US yields have surged past 4.25% to 4.28%, up around 1% today. The metal may test support at $2,700. Resistance is at $2,750/$2,760.

Poly Medicure reported a strong Q2 performance, with net profit rising 40.5 percent year-on-year to Rs 87.4 crore from Rs 62.2 crore. Revenue increased by 24 percent, reaching  Rs 420 crore compared to Rs 337.3 crore in the same period last year. EBITDA grew by 37.2 percent to Rs 115.5 crore from Rs 84.2 crore, while the EBITDA margin improved to 27.5 percent from 25 percent year-on-year.

Greenply Industries reported a 26 percent year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2 at Rs 17.6 crore compared to Rs 14 crore in the previous year. Revenue rose by 12 percent to Rs 640.5 crore from Rs 567.7 crore year-on-year, while EBITDA grew by 18.8 percent to Rs 57.6 crore from Rs 48.5 crore. The EBITDA margin also improved, coming in at 9 percent versus 8.5 percent in the same period last year.

#1 Company posted a strong set of results in Q2 on the back of faster ramp-up of mobile business

#2 Expect strong earnings growth momentum to continue

#3 Increase EPS estimate by up to 10 percent over FY25-27 on back of higher revenue growth assumptions

#4 Forecast near 50 percent EPS CAGR over FY25-27

#1 Profit declines 28.5 percent to Rs 125.8 crore Vs Rs 176 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue slips 7 percent to Rs 2,560.1 crore Vs Rs 2,752.8 crore, YoY

#1 Profit rises 29.5 percent to Rs 22.9 crore Vs Rs 17.71 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 13.8 percent to Rs 346.5 crore Vs Rs 304.6 crore, YoY

#3 EBITDA zooms 123.5 percent to Rs 106.6 crore Vs Rs 47.7 crore, YoY

#4 Margin expands 1,510 bps to 30.8 percent Vs 15.7 percent, YoY

#1 Profit jumps 36.2 percent to Rs 67.7 crore Vs Rs 49.7 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 17.4 percent to Rs 308.2 crore Vs Rs 262.5 crore, YoY

#3 EBITDA increases 3.6 percent to Rs 63.9 crore Vs Rs 61.7 crore, YoY

#4 Margin drops to 20.7 percent Vs 23.5 percent, YoY

#1 Profit grows 7.8 percent to Rs 90.9 crore Vs Rs 84.4 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue jumps 15 percent to Rs 624.5 crore Vs Rs 543.7 crore, YoY

#1 Profit increases 17.4 percent to Rs 453 crore Vs Rs 386 crore

#2 Revenue rises 8.6 percent to Rs 2,889 crore Vs Rs 2,660 crore

#1 Profit drops 0.14 percent to Rs 347 crore Vs Rs 347.4 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue increases 7.4 percent to Rs 2,419.7 crore Vs Rs 2,253.2 crore, YoY

#3 Other income falls to Rs 90.5 crore Vs Rs 107.09 crore, YoY

#4 Freight and forwarding expenses jumps to Rs 183.2 crore Vs Rs 101.8 crore, YoY

#1 Near-term outlook weak & change in policy a concern

#2 Q2 missed estimates on lower margins, while volume growth sustains at a strong clip

#3 Management remains optimistic on healthy volume growth of 10 percent in FY25

#1 Amid asset quality noise in rest of sector, continued to deliver a steady performance

#2 Investment thesis of an overall growth trajectory of 20 percent

#3 Asset quality not showing any concerns currently

#1 Q2 net profit halved YoY/QoQ, dragged down by an elevated 6.5 percent (annualised) credit cost

#2 Management trimmed its loan growth guidance & raised its credit cost guidance

#3 Deterioration in delinquency bucket since implementation of new guard rails has been dramatic

#1 Profit grows 25.4 percent to Rs 78.9 crore Vs Rs 62.9 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue increases 25.5 percent to Rs 417.5 crore Vs Rs 332.7 crore, YoY

#1 Profit stands Rs 90 crore Vs loss of Rs 27 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue surges 93 percent to Rs 742 crore Vs Rs 384 crore, YoY

#3 Order book jumps to 3,328 MW Vs 1,276 MW

#1 Reported a subdued Q2 with EBITDA was below estimates

#2 Miss in Q2 was on account of a multitude of factors

#3 All the factors leading to miss in Q2 may reverse course in H2

#4 Large inventory losses in both refining & marketing should not recur

#5 Weak core GRMs already showing signs of bottoming out

#6 Lower-than-expected marketing margin & volumes & sustained LPG under recoveries

#7 Debt also saw an unexpected jump in Q2, which too had an element of one-offs as per management

#1 Flawless quarter; a cut above the rest

#2 Strong loan and deposits growth; robust asset quality performance

#3 Raise FY25-27 EPS estimate by 2-3 percent, factoring in lower opex & slightly lower credit cost

#1 Profit declines 4.3 percent to Rs 292.2 crore Vs Rs 305.3 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue increases 5 percent to Rs 918 crore Vs Rs 875 crore, YoY

Gold prices are stuck in a consolidative range, as traders/ investors look for fresh cues from the market with focus on the U.S. election and the U.S. Fed's policy outcome next week. However, ahead of that few data are lined up this week, starting with U.S. consumer confidence, GDP and inflation data from Germany/ Euro zone/ U.S., U.S. payroll data and the manufacturing PMI from across regions".

Prices are trading slightly lower today amid fall in the middle-east risk premium with crude down more than 4%.

On chart... gold trend still remains positive till prices are above support at 77500/ 75750, on the upside prices may test 80000/ 82400 in short-term.

For Crude oil.... chart momentum looks consolidative with support at 5765/ 5575, while on the upside resistance holds at 5930/ 6100.

#1 Q2 profit higher than estimates

#2 Loan growth improved but NII growth lagged to fall in NIM

#3 We are disappointed with 18 percent fall in fees

#4 Credit quality has held-up well & can abate concerns

#1 Q2 EPS & PBT (ex-FX) was below estimates

#2 Q2 ASK/RPK were largely in-line

#3 Yields were 2.5 percent above estimates, driving a revenue beat

#4 CASK were higher than estimates driven by higher fuel and higher lease expenses

#5 Aircraft groundings were stable at mid-70s and improving

#1 Q2 EBITDA was in-line with estimate

#2 Volumes came in 3 percent ahead of estimates and EBITDA margin slightly below

#3 Expect strong volume growth to continue on accelerated RO additions

#4 Upgrade FY25/26 volume assumptions by 4-7 percent

#5 Cut FY25/26 PAT 9 percent/13 percent, lower multiple to 15x PE

#1 Profit jumps 59.6 percent to Rs 83.98 crore Vs Rs 52.6 crore, YoY

#2 Net interest income grows 35.9 percent to Rs 213.5 crore Vs Rs 157.2 crore, YoY

#1 Profit soars 14.3 percent to Rs 80.7 crore Vs Rs 70.6 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue increases 13 percent to Rs 1,057 crore Vs Rs 935.5 crore, YoY

#1 Profit grows 6.2 percent to Rs 4,005.5 crore Vs Rs 3,772.9 crore, YoY

#2 Net interest income rises 21.2 percent to Rs 4,680.4 crore Vs 3,863.2 crore, YoY

#1 Steady show in Q2 amid tough environments

#2 Benign valuations but challenging MFI sector outlook keeps us cautious

#3 Healthy loan and deposits growth; asset quality deteriorates on higher slippages

#1 Q2 healthy RoA delivery; steady asset quality

#2 Favourable risk-reward

#3 Expect to deliver RoA of 1.1 percent & RoE of 15-16 percent over FY25-27

The Board has approved the company’s entry into a joint venture agreement with Oil India for developing a city gas distribution (CGD) project in Arunachal Pradesh. There will be a 50:50 shareholding between BPCL and Oil India in the joint venture.

The Board has approved the issuance of bonus shares in the ratio of 9:1 (nine new bonus equity shares for every existing equity share) to the eligible shareholders of the company as of the record date.

The weekend retaliatory strike by Israel spared Iran's critical oil infrastructure. This action eased fears of supply disruption, reducing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, a region central to global oil supplies. Crude oil prices are expected to trade within a bearish range of Rs 5,500-6,200 in India, with NYMEX crude potentially finding immediate support near USD 64.

The 2024 market for crude has been weak due to slower-than-expected economic recovery in large economies like China, along with surplus supply from U.S. producers and non-OPEC sources. We have seen around 15% fall in crude oil, which is actually positive for the Indian economy but showing some concern in growth of major economies at the same time.

As a major importer, India benefits from reduced crude costs, which can help stabilize inflation and, in turn, strengthen consumer purchasing power. This relief in inflationary pressures also opens up space for RBI to maintain or consider further rate cuts, supporting broader economic growth.

#1 Q2 earnings were in-line

#2 Defensive stock with strong earnings visibility; higher valuations can sustain in near-term

#3 EBITDA margin expanded & was in-line with estimate

#4 Management retained its guidance of EBITDA margin expansion of 50-100 bp each year

Despite the ongoing subdued market mood, Waaree Energies received the strongest subscription response from all sets of investors and also debuted slightly below our expectations. Pre listing, we had recommended profit booking if Waaree lists at double of its issue price which was the street expectations. With listing at Rs 2550, we believe the stock can deliver healthy returns post listing as well.

We believe the long term investor demand would continue at the counter on the back of sector demand and expansion plans, with an opportunity to play at the largest manufacturer of solar PV modules in India, bolstered by favourable government policies and few incentive (PLI) schemes. Hence, we recommend long term investors to “HOLD” while short term investors can look for a target anywhere between Rs 2750-2800 to book profits. Fresh accumulation can be attempted anywhere between Rs 2200-2300 if the opportunity arises due to market scenario and profits booking attempts.

SEBI has issued a show cause notice to Axis Bank and its subsidiaries, Axis Securities and Axis Capital.

Axis Bank and its subsidiaries are reviewing the contents of the show cause notice and will be filing responses with SEBI, as the transactions (purchase of shares of Max Life Insurance Company) were undertaken with the requisite regulatory approvals.

The DMart operator has completed the acquisition of a 26 percent shareholding in FP Ampere Energy (a wholly owned subsidiary of Fourth Partner Energy) for Rs 2 crore. Following this acquisition, FP Ampere has become an associate company of Avenue Supermarts.

The pharma company has received approval from the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) for the merger of Casper Pharma with itself. Casper Pharma is a wholly owned subsidiary of Suven.

#1 Profit jumps 201.3 percent to Rs 74.1 crore Vs Rs 24.6 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue surges 67.2 percent to Rs 1,345.9 crore Vs Rs 805 crore, YoY

The Sensex was up 889.43 points or 1.12 percent at 80,291.72, and the Nifty was up 231.70 points or 0.96 percent at 24,412.50.

#1 Profit drops 13.7 percent to Rs 53.8 crore Vs Rs 62.4 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue falls 7.5 percent to Rs 816.2 crore Vs Rs 882.4 crore, YoY

#3 Order intake at Rs 921 crore Vs Rs 1,063 crore, YoY