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Last Updated : Mar 28, 2019 01:59 PM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Brokerages initiate coverage on 11 stocks with a 'buy' for double-digit returns

The broader markets, which had been underperformer for many months, turned outperformers in last one month rally.

Sunil Shankar Matkar
 
 
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The BSE Sensex has gained more than 3,000 points in about a month driven by banking & financials. Even the FII inflows in March have been unstoppable as they net bought more than Rs 28,000 crore worth of shares.

In February, FIIs had bought assets worth Rs 15,328 crore.

"We are still in a bull run. The recent fall in Sensex and Nifty was an on-going correction as both the indices have sustained above their respective 200 DMAs. The current rally can re-test the previous highs and fresh rally could start once we break the previous peaks of both Nifty & Sensex," Rusmik Oza- Head of Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities told Moneycontrol.

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The broader market, which had been underperformer for many months, also saw a bounce back. The Nifty Midcap index has gained more than 10 percent and smallcap index has climbed over 14 percent since February 19.

With the changing mood in the market, brokerages and analysts also revised their ratings and price targets on some stocks. Nearly 25-30 stocks saw initiation of coverage with a buy  rating from brokerages in March.

Here are 11 stocks where brokerages initiated coverage with a buy call:

Brokerage: Nirmal Bang

UPL: Buy | Target: Rs 1,134 | Return: 25%

Indian generics agrochemicals company UPL is set for robust growth after the recent $4.2 billion all-cash buyout of global competitor Arysta LifeScience Inc.

The Indian multinational is present across the entire crop protection chemicals (CPC) and seeds chain. UPL caters to all categories focused on key crops and geographies, including Latin America (LatAm), its largest market.

UPL is present in 133 countries with 79 percent of its revenues coming from overseas markets. We forecast FY19-21E EPS CAGR of 41 percent for the UPL-Arysta combine (including synergies).

We initiate coverage on UPL with a buy rating and a target price of Rs 1,134.

Indian Hotels Company: Buy | Target: Rs 195 | Return: 29%

We initiate coverage on Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) with a buy rating and a target price of Rs 195 based on 21x FY21E EV/EBITDA.

Our optimism on the stock is based on: 1) Cyclical upturn in the hotel sector along with favourable demand-supply dynamics which are expected to drive the occupancy rate and average room rate (ARR). 2) Aggressive restructuring strategy focused on improving EBITDA margin from 18 percent in FY16 to 25 percent by FY23E.

The key pillars of the aggressive strategy ‘Aspirations 2022’ are: 1) Expansion of the number of rooms with the shift to an asset-light model leading to increase in management contracts. 2) Cost optimisation. 3) Better management of brands. 4) Leveraging on the Tata Group's strengths. 5) Sale of non-core assets and monetisation of the balance sheet.

Brokerage: Edelweiss

Astral Poly Technik: Buy | Target: Rs 1,490 | Return: 34%

Astral Poly Technik (Astral) is the domestic market leader in the niche CPVC pipes & fittings market. It has ventured in to the adhesives business in 2010-11 and gained significant traction in the same.

The company has also entered the corrugated pipes segment via an acquisition. Innovations, proven track record and execution prowess help Astral further entrench its position in the domestic market and enhance presence in new markets.

It is the only backward integrated CPVC player in India with products related tie-ups with global players, deep distribution network with higher SKUs and sharpened focus on advertisement to deepen customer penetration.

Moreover, a strong balance sheet and estimated free cash flow (FCF) of Rs 230 crore in FY20 offer the option of making more strategic investments sans balance sheet stress.

Hence, we initiate coverage with buy and target price of Rs 1,490, entailing 34 percent upside potential.

Brokerage: Antique Stock Broking

Ganesha Ecosphere: Buy | Target: Rs 440 | Return: 71%

Ganesha Ecosphere (GNPL) has emerged as one of the leading polyethylene terephthalate (PET) recycling companies in India.

We believe that GNPL's business model of giving waste an useful second innings, is well-poised for the next leg of growth, on the back of: (1) a widespread channel network for procurement of raw material (PET bottles), (2) capacity expansion in north India (20 percent of current capacity), (3) greenfield expansion in south India, adding 65 percent of existing capacity, (4) new capacities to catapult the margin and return ratios.

We anticipate, commissioning of new RPSF facilities along-with better RoE/RoCE to be the key catalysts for stock re-rating. We initiate coverage with a buy rating and target price of Rs 440, valuing it at a PE of 12xFY21 earnings (5-year average 10x; high/low - 16x/3x).

Brokerage: Goldman Sachs

HDFC Life: Buy | Target: Rs 488 | Return: 32%

HDFC Life is amongst India's highest quality and most profitable Life insurers given its de-risked business model and its ability to tap into a large Protection profit pool.

On the back of these strengths, we expect HDFC Life to deliver sector-leading NBV growth of 27 percent versus 20 percent for peers over FY19-22E. We initiate HDFC Life at buy with a 12-month target price of Rs 488.

It is the market leader in various pools of protection business such as 1) Online retail protection sales; 2) Critical illness riders, 3) Credit life business and 4) Annuities. Direct channel capabilities combined with access to affluent customers and largest protection product suite will help them deliver 50 percent of incremental profitability.

HDFC Life is better positioned and has better navigated equity market / regulatory uncertainty in the past given its balanced product mix. Even from a distribution perspective; a high proportion of proprietary channel and adoption of open architecture in banca reduce long term risks.

Brokerage: Prabhudas Lilladher

VIP Industries: Buy | Target: Rs 579 | Return: 24%

We initiate coverage on VIP Industries (VIP) with a buy rating given market leadership (around 50 percent revenue share) in the organized luggage industry, well-diversified product portfolio (six brands and multiple SKUs exceeding 1,500) and solid brand salience (brand-ex is around 5-7 percent of sales).

Strong distribution network (around 11,000 touch points), GST implementation (narrowed pricing gap with unorganized players resulting in up-trading) and entry into the under penetrated ladies hand bags and backpack market is likely to drive sales/PAT at a CAGR of 23.7/25.1 percent over FY18-21E.

While headwinds from currency & crude volatility prevail, product premiumisation (rising share of Caprese and Carlton) and increase in production from captive facilities at Bangladesh will aid in 40bps EBITDA margin expansion over FY18-21E.

We expect premium valuations (32.7x FY20E and 25.3x FY21E) to sustain given strong growth prospects, debt free balance sheet, high return ratios (RoE/RoCE of 25.6 /36.9 percent in FY18; to expand by 230bps/310bps over FY18-21E), and healthy dividend pay-out (average 41 percent over last 5 years).

Brokerage: JM Financial

Deepak Nitrite: Buy | Target: Rs 340 | Return: 25%

Deepak Nitrite (DNL) is a leading global player for several niche chemical products which find application in colorants, petrochemicals, agrochemicals, rubber, pharmaceuticals, paper, textile, detergents etc. DNL commissioned its phenol plant on November 1, 2018 and quickly ramped up the utilisation levels to 80 percent.

Management is confident of further improving the utilisation levels to 90 percent in FY20E. On the back of this new project, DNL is expected to report strong earnings growth in FY19E and FY20E. The loss-making performance products segment has been successfully turned around by focusing on higher-value products.

DNL is also expected to report strong improvement in financials and profitability in FY20E. Venturing into phenol and acetone derivative products and continued investment in the standalone segment would further drive the growth beyond FY20E. We initiate coverage on the company with a price target of Rs 340 based on 15x FY21e earnings.

Sanofi India: Buy | Target: Rs 7,000 | Return: 22%

Sanofi India Ltd – a 60.4 percent subsidiary of Sanofi SA, France is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. It has a leadership position in the anti-diabetic therapy market with brands like Lantus & Toujeo, one of largest OTC brands portfolio, distinct therapies in rare disease and API & formulations export to group companies across the world.

The anti-diabetic therapy segment accounts for 27 percent of total sales, and is growing faster than the market while its flagship brand Lantus is the most prescribed basal insulin.

We expect an overall revenue and PAT CAGR of 13.1 percent and 18.5 percent, respectively, and strong FCFF at 88 percent of PAT on a yearly basis over CY18-CY20E. We recommend buy with a target price of Rs 7,000.

ITD Cementation: Buy | Target: Rs 165 | Return: 28%

ITD Cementation (ITDC) is at an inflection point, to drive topline growth based on its diversified strategy to grow in sectors such as marine, transport, airport and water projects.

Its recent strong order wins, improving balance sheet and rebounding / stable EBITDA margins would lead to an increase in the bottomline and better return ratios. The strong order backlog that is well diversified across various segments and strong inflows are expected to drive revenue and PAT CAGR of 23 percent and 25 percent, respectively, over FY19-FY21E.

We initiate coverage on the company with a price target of Rs 165 based on 15x FY21e earnings.

Brokerage: HDFC Securities

Indostar Capital Finance: Buy | Target: Rs 549 | Return: 55%

Promoted and run by professionals, Indostar Capital Finance (INDOSTAR) is an NBFC, with a presence spanning multiple segments (unlike other NBFCs with a monoline business). After commencing operations as a special situation corporate and developer financier, INDOSTAR managed to pull off a transition to retail lending (fashionable).

Between FY12-18, AUMs grew at around 39 percent CAGR (as expected by an NBFC of its size), spearheaded by the corporate segment with ample demand and benign liquidity. Recent growth has been retail driven (SME, VF and housing finance).

Opportunistic and tactile lending by an astute management translated into (1) superior yields (around 15 percent over FY13-18), (2) astounding asset quality (G/NNPAs: 90/60bps), (3) efficient operations and (4) thus lofty RoAAs (4.7 percent, FY13-18). Granular growth will de-risk the overall book, hereon.

Further, the ability to increase leverage will drive RoAEs. At a little over around 1x trailing ABV, valuations are attractive even if we assume significant slippages (unlikely). Initiate coverage with a buy (target price of Rs 549, 1.5xMar-21E ABV of Rs 366).

Brokerage: BP Wealth

Dishman Carbogen Amcis: Buy | Target: Rs 291 | Return: 42%

Dishman Carbogen Amcis (DCAL) has built a healthy order book in CRAMS, which is virtually full of current capacities, and thus the management’s focus is shifting to improve profitability. We expect a significant growth in earnings over the next couple of years (earnings CAGR of around 33 percent in FY18-21E), which will aid to generate sizable cash flows.

Apart from Niraparib, there are three to four potential launches in near future, which will not only accelerate growth, but also de-risk earnings from blockbuster products.

The emerging signs of a recovery in Carbogen, robust prospects from Vitamin D business, concentration on sweating off the assets and improving the financial ratios like Debt/Equity and ROCE, gives us confidence on its performance.

Given its significant operating leverage, a pick-up in revenue growth can deliver significant earning up-sides and trigger a rerating. At the current market price (of Rs 210) the company is trading at 13.3x its FY20E consolidated EPS of Rs 15.7 and 10.1x its FY21E consolidated EPS of Rs 20.8.

We believe the valuations are attractive and the stock can give decent returns in the future. Thus, we give a buy rating on the stock by assigning 14x (30 percent discount to Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) 10-year average P/E) of its FY21E earrings and arrive at a target price of Rs 291 for an investment horizon of 12-15 months.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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First Published on Mar 28, 2019 01:59 pm
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