The disruption of the economy caused by lockdowns and curfew, is simply self-inflicted damage, according to Ramanan Laxminarayan. The best response would be through behaviour and public policy, said the economist and epidemiologist who directs the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP), a research outfit based in Washington and New Delhi.
In the largest contact tracing study to date published in Science, a team of researchers from CDDEP, Princeton, University of California-Berkeley and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in collaboration with the governments of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, investigated COVID-19 epidemiology in India. The study gave a much needed insight onto COVID-19 transmission in low resource settings .
Read more: Coronavirus Omicron live blog
What is the most likely scenario for the spread of the coronavirus over the next two months?
The current Omicron wave is likely to follow the pattern seen in other countries with similar vaccination coverage. A high peak of cases and then a quick drop off. Mortality will increase but not to the extent seen in the second wave.
How can it impact the economic activity in India?
Disruption of economic activity is not being caused by the virus. It is being caused by unnecessary lockdowns and curfews that have little impact on the spread of the omicron variant. So, in a sense, this damage is self-inflicted.
What sort of economic activity could be feasible under the circumstances, given that social distancing and non-crowding are necessary to keep the virus at bay?
The virus is spreading so rapidly that I’m not sure that even bans on indoor activity will make a meaningful difference to slowing down its spread. Our main hope is that the health system will be ready with beds, staff, and oxygen.
When in your view, will the Third Wave peak?
A peak is likely in February – based on the current trajectory and past trends. But it is difficult to be accurate on this since cases are being undercounted significantly at this time.
Read also: Ten tips from a top scientist on how to live with Covid-19 in 2022
What should peoples' activity be in the next one month, given the restrictions in place?
The time for test, track and contain was over a while back. I think that returning to full economic activity makes sense with a ban on mass gatherings alone. Super-spreading events are the rule rather than the exception here.
What should organisations do under the circumstances with regard to employees and workplace? What, for instance, is the West doing in this regard?
Company restrictions are more to do with not having quarantine related disruptions. A hybrid model is the way to go.
When will India reach the endemic stage?
The disease is already endemic in the sense that it has made its home in the country and the world. But endemicity does not mean that we will not see waves of new variants in the future. The two things we can be sure of are that Covid is not going anywhere and moreover, new variants will emerge. The rest depends on our behaviour and public policy.
Can companies bring back employees?
Like I said, company restrictions are more to do with having quarantine related disruptions. Antibody studies in India might not have been representative of the entire population and potentially overestimated exposure in other groups.
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