ICICI Securities research report on Lupin
Lupin’s Q4FY25 outperformance was led by better traction in Mirabegron and gPred Forte in US (up 17.3% YoY) and other developed markets (up 30% YoY). While exclusivity in gPred Forte will be lost in May’25, threat of an unfavourable outcome of Mirabegron litigation is hovering. Lupin has launched tolvaptan (brand sales of USD 1.5bn, 180 exclusivity) in May’25 which will likely boost US growth in H1FY26, beyond which pipeline visibility of exclusive products is limited.
Outlook
India biz growth had slowed down to 7% in Q4 and management is hopeful of a recovery in FY26. We raise FY26/27E EPS by 1.6%/0.5% to factor in better margins, though expect revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 8.4%/7.9%/10.7% over FY25–27E, respectively. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of INR 2,110 based on 22x FY27E EPS.
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