COVID-19 third wave may hit India around October, kids at similar risk as adults: MHA panel

According to the COVID-19 vaccination dashboard of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, as of August 2, 2021, 47,85,44, 144 (over 47 crore) individuals have been administered at least one dose of COVID vaccine.(Representative image: Reuters)

The third wave of COVID-19 may hit India between September and October, said an expert panel, set up by an institute under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). The panel has recommended that the Centre step up the inoculation drive significantly to tame the imminent surge in infections.

Constituted by the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), the panel of experts warned that this time children may also be at similar risk as adults.

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"Paediatric facilities, doctors and equipment like ventilators, ambulances, etc. are nowhere close to what may be required in case a large number of children become infected," it said, as per an India Today report.

The report, submitted to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), noted that since only around 7.6 percent (10.4 crore) people are fully vaccinated, India can witness six lakh cases per day in the next wave if the vaccination pace is not ramped up.

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Further, it also said that epidemiologists predict a series of surges till we achieve herd immunity through infection or vaccination and the disease becomes endemic.

The NIDM report quoted the prediction of experts from IIT Kanpur which suggested three likely scenarios for the third wave based on the level of unlocking.

In scenario one, it said that the third wave could peak in October with 3.2 lakh positive cases per day.

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In scenario two, with the emergence of new and more virulent variants, the third wave could peak in September with likely five lakh positive cases per day.

In scenario three, the experts predicted that the third wave could peak in late October with two lakh positive cases per day.

The report also said that there isn't sufficient data to back widespread fears that children will be hit more severely in the anticipated third wave of the pandemic.

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However, as the virus continues to evolve, this is going to be a major challenge for children as they remain unvaccinated.

According to the COVID-19 vaccination dashboard of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, as of August 2, 2021, 47,85,44, 144 (over 47 crore) individuals have been administered at least one dose of COVID vaccine.

(With PTI inputs)