Karnataka Verdict: The big loser in this election is Janata Dal (S) 

Will reinvigorating the JD(S) before the parliamentary elections next year fall on HD Kumaraswamy? (Pictured)

With Congress romping back to power, the biggest loser in the Karnataka assembly elections is the Janata Dal (Secular). Used to calling the shots as a kingmaker, it has now been pushed into oblivion. With some of the pre-poll surveys pointing towards a hung assembly, many poll pundits were expecting the JD(S) to play a decisive role once again in what could have been a repeat of the 2018 verdict.

But the people of Karnataka gave a clear mandate to the Congress, ending not only BJP’s dominion, but also pushing JD(S) to a distant third.

JD(S), which had won 37 seats in the 2018 assembly elections and formed the government, with HD Kumaraswamy heading a coalition with the Congress, has seen its strength reduced to 19 now.

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The defeat of Nikhil Kumaraswamy, who lost to Iqbal Hussain of Congress in JD(S)’s traditional stronghold, highlighted its plight. Ramanagara — a constituency once represented by party patriarch HD Deve Gowda — has always stood with JD(S). But Nikhil bit the dust for the second time as he failed to win the seat held by his mother, Anita Kumaraswamy. He earlier lost the parliamentary election in 2019 to actress Sumalatha, the wife of late MP and Kannada film star Ambareesh.

In the previous elections held in 2018, Nikhil’s father Kumaraswamy had won the seat by a margin of 22,636 votes against the same Congress opponent, but since the former CM had contested and won in two seats, he chose to retain Channapatna. Later, his wife Anita Kumaraswamy won the by-elections.

Hussain got 72,898 votes and his victory margin of 11,206 against Nikhil, who polled 61,692, was a big boost to Congress in the district. Smarting from the defeat, JD(S) party workers reportedly created a ruckus and did not allow Congress workers to enter the counting centre on counting day.

JD(S), a group that broke away from the Janata Dal in 1999, is currently recognised as a state party in Karnataka, Kerala, and Arunachal Pradesh.

In Karnataka, Vokkaligas are the party’s vote bank in the Old Mysore region, including Hassan, Ramanagara, and Mandya, but it also manages a few seats in Lingayat-dominated North Karnataka.

An indisposed Kumaraswamy, who even went to Singapore for a quick check-up, could not do full-fledged campaigning, and Congress, on a comeback trail, affected the prospects of many JD(S) candidates.

Intra-family differences also took its toll. Party chief Deve Gowda had to intervene in deciding the Hassan seat, where Bhavani Revanna, wife of Kumaraswamy’s elder brother HD Revanna, announced her own candidature. Later, it was given to rookie Swaroop Prakash, the son of HS Prakash, who lost to Preetham J Gowda of BJP in 2018. Prakash won by 8,895 votes this time.

JD(S) has always been dubbed a “family” party, and though the senior Gowda tries to position it as a farmer’s party, the results of the 2023 assembly elections has plunged the party into a serious identity crisis.

Kumaraswamy’s elder brother and former minister Revanna retained the Holenarasipur assembly seat, but overall JD(S) suffered a big blow in Hassan district, where it won six out of seven seats in 2018.

Despite eyeing a clean-sweep of all the seven seats, it eventually settled for only four, with BJP winning two and Congress one, a clear indication of the erosion of its vote base in the region.

In hindsight, the party’s obsession with family seems to have backfired for JD(S), as evident in Nikhil’s loss. While Prakash was able to wrest the Hassan seat, Nikhil lost a safe seat, a clear indicator of the family’s diminishing hold.

A 1996-like situation which catapulted Deve Gowda to the PM’s seat may well emerge again in 2024. With age and ill-health wearing him down, does Deve Gowda have it in him to reinvigorate the JD(S) before the parliamentary elections next year, or will the mantle fall again on HD Kumaraswamy?