Many pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, projected a range of 130-209 seats for the NDA in the 243-member Bihar assembly, a figure well past the required majority mark of 122. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress and Left parties, is predicted to trail with 70-102 seats.
Bihar Exit Poll: The BJP-led NDA is set to secure a clear majority over the RJD-led Grand Alliance, while Jan Suraaj may struggle to even open its account in the state, according to the survey.
Earlier today, addressing the presser, the Yadav scion claimed that even while people were still standing in queues waiting for their turn to vote, and the polling process had not yet ended, exit polls were already being released, predicting the BJP-JD(U) alliance’s victory in the assembly elections.
Seemanchal, which has the highest Muslim population in the state, saw Kishanganj record a turnout of 79.93%, an increase of 19.07% from 2020.
Congress and JD(U) seats post double-digit turnout gains; BJP strongholds hold steady, RJD sees modest rise
The last time women recorded a notably high turnout was in 2015, when 60.48 per cent cast their ballots compared to 53.32 per cent of men. In the 2020 polls, women's turnout stood at 60% compared to 54% for men.
Exit poll predictions were released shortly after the conclusion of the second phase of polling in Bihar on Tuesday. Counting of votes will take place on November 14
The exit polls also predicted that Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj, which made its debut in the assembly polls, is unlikely to make any splash in terms of seats.
Notably, this was the first time that chief minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) agreed to contest the same number of seats as BJP – veering from the “big brother, small brother” in the relationship
Paswan's electoral performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls strengthened his bargaining position. LJP(RV) contested five seats in Bihar and won all five, registering a 100% success rate.
Exit polls have predicted a thumping victory for the ruling NDA in Bihar and another setback for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan.
The CM, eyeing his fifth consecutive term, was targeted by the Opposition which accused him of being 'remote-controlled' by the BJP and raised concerns about his health and potential impact on governance.
While Rahul Gandhi's 'Vote Adhikar Yatra' managed to galvanise party workers on the ground, its organisational deficiencies and a leadership vacuum may have led the party to another failure in translating alliance arithmetic into electoral performance.
Rise outpaces other constituency cohorts, lifting Muslim and tribal belts to top of turnout table
The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to finish a distant second with 85 to 95 seats, while the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is likely to draw a blank or manage 0–5 seats.
The News18 Mega Exit Poll 2025 predicted that the NDA will win 140-150 seats while the Mahagathbandhan will bag 85-95 seats. Meanwhile, the Jan Suraaj Party will win 0-5 seats while others will secure 5-10 seats.
A defeat for the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar eventually pushes the INDIA bloc into yet another crisis situation with Congress likely at the heart of it.
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, most exit polls had predicted a narrow victory for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. An average of 11 surveys placed the alliance at 125 seats, just above the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member House, while giving the JD(U)-led NDA 108 seats.
If Jan Suraaj ends up drawing a blank, Kishor will face a decision point. The outcome will force the political strategist-turned-politician to rethink both his methods and his message.
Constituencies in female-leaning regions of Seemanchal and Koshi will pose crucial tests for BJP and Congress
The 2020 Bihar Assembly election saw the BJP take 42 of these 122 constituencies voting in the second phase. The RJD won 33, the JD(U) 20, Congress 11, and Left parties five.
Bihar recorded a turnout of 47.62 per cent in the second phase of the Assembly polls as of 1 pm, according to data from the Election Commission of India.
As per the guidelines of the Election Commission of India (ECI), exit polls can’t be released until the voting process is fully completed
Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, viewed as a potential dark horse that could influence the outcome in a politically volatile state, is expected to underperform in its electoral debut, likely winning at most one seat
In this phase, the electoral fate of 1,302 candidates, including several ministers in the Nitish Kumar government, will be sealed.