Bihar Exit Poll | NDA heads for landslide, RJD bloc trails, Jan Suraaj fails to impress: Today's Chanakya

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, right, and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar during a public meeting ahead of the state Assembly elections, in Samastipur district, Friday, Oct. 24, 2025. (PTI Photo)

The NDA is poised for a decisive victory in the Bihar Assembly elections, according to a leading exit poll, with the Mahagathbandhan trailing far behind. The survey also predicts a disappointing debut for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party.

As per Today’s Chanakya, the NDA is projected to win around 160 seats (±12), while the RJD-led Grand Alliance may secure about 77 seats (±12). Other parties are expected to win roughly 6 seats (±3), indicating a clear and commanding edge for the BJP-led coalition.

In terms of vote share, the BJP-led NDA is projected to secure 44% (±3%), compared to 38% (±3%) for the RJD-led alliance, while other parties together account for 18% (±3%), indicating a clear edge for the ruling coalition.

The predictions by Today's Chanakya come a day after several pollsters predicted a landslide victory for the ruling NDA and a dismal show by Kishor's JSP, which is making its electoral debut.

Axis My India has predicted 121 to 141 seats for the NDA, while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to secure between 98 and 118 seats. Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party JSP and the AIMIM are each projected to win one seat, according to the survey.

The Matrize Exit Poll forecast the NDA likely getting between 147-167 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 70-90, and the Jan Suraaj between 0-2 seats, while Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145-160 seats for the NDA and 73-91 for the Mahagathbandhan.

According to People’s Insight, the NDA is projected to win 133–148 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan may secure 87–102 seats and Jan Suraaj could manage 0–2 seats.

The People’s Pulse survey estimates 133–159 seats for the NDA, 75–101 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0–5 seats for Prashant Kishor’s party.

Similarly, the JVC poll forecasts 135–150 seats for the NDA and 88–103 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, while Polstrat projects 133–148 seats for the NDA and 87–102 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.

Meanwhile, Chanakya Strategies predicts 130–138 seats for the NDA, 100–108 for the Mahagathbandhan, and none for Jan Suraaj. The P-Marq exit poll offers the most optimistic outlook for the ruling alliance, projecting 142–162 seats for the NDA, 80–98 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 1–4 seats for Jan Suraaj.

The NDA, which includes the BJP, JD(U), and LJP (Ram Vilas) as its key partners, is aiming to retain power in Bihar, while the opposition INDIA bloc, comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, is hoping to form the next government with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate.

On Tuesday, Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14 percent (provisional) at the close of polling in the second and final phase of the fiercely contested elections, widely seen as a referendum on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s long tenure.