Congress, JD(U) strongholds lead turnout surge; RJD bastions lag the field

JD(U) strongholds see a voter turnout surge

Congress and Janata Dal (United) stronghold constituencies have registered the sharpest rise in voter turnout in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, while Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) bastions have seen comparatively smaller gains, a Moneycontrol analysis shows.

A stronghold is defined as a constituency that a party has won in three consecutive elections.

Across all such seats, Congress strongholds posted the biggest jump, with average turnout climbing to 80.2 percent in 2025 from 63.6 percent in 2020, a gain of 16.6 percentage points, the highest among major parties.

The party has just two stronghold seats in the state: Kishanganj (79.84%) and Kasba (80.56%), both in the Seemanchal–Koshi belt, which now sit near the top of the state’s turnout table.

JD(U)’s 23 strongholds also saw a double-digit rise, with average turnout increasing to 68 percent from 57.8 percent, up 10.2 percentage points.

The gains were widely distributed across Samastipur, Vaishali, and the Koshi belt. Kalyanpur (SC) jumped 15.7 points to 73.6 percent. Rupauli rose 13.9 points to 74.6 percent. Dhamdaha increased 12.4 points to 75.8 percent, while Supaul added 11.2 points to 70.6 percent.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) saw a 9.9 percentage-point increase across its 24 strongholds, taking average turnout to 66 percent from 56.1 percent.

The gains were concentrated in the east and north, led by Raxaul (up 9.96 points to 73.83 percent), Motihari (up 11.93 points to 71.60 percent), and Chiraia (up 10.67 points to 67.30 percent). However, some seats remained turnout laggards. Bankipur rose just five points to 40.97 percent, while Kumhrar climbed 4.3 points to 39.57 percent, pulling down the overall average.

RJD’s strongholds posted the smallest increase, with turnout rising 8.5 points to 67.1 percent from 58.6 percent in 2020. Some of the sharper rises included: Samastipur (up 12.6 points to 72.1 percent), Belaganj (up 11.8 points to 73.2 percent), Baniapur (up 10.8 points to 63.7 percent), and Darbhanga Rural (up 8.7 points to 62.9 percent).

Despite broad-based improvement, RJD’s uplift lagged behind that of Congress, JD(U), and BJP.

Compared with 2015, Congress strongholds have climbed from 67.8 percent to 80.2 percent, JD(U) from 56.9 percent to 68.0 percent, BJP from 57.3 percent to 66.0 percent, and RJD from 57.1 percent to 67.1 percent, underscoring a multi-cycle strengthening of participation across most entrenched bases.

Historically, higher turnout in strongholds with narrow 2020 victory margins has coincided with tighter finishes. Several incumbent-held seats could therefore see closer contests when counting begins on Friday, November 14.

An earlier Moneycontrol analysis showed that Muslim- and ST-dominated constituencies also witnessed the largest turnout increases in this election.

Exit polls released on November 11 project an NDA victory, with most surveys giving the alliance over 130 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD and Congress, is expected to secure around 100 seats. The News18 Mega Exit Poll forecasts 140–150 seats for the NDA.