Bihar Exit Poll | NDA poised for big win, Mahagathbandhan trails behind; Jan Suraaj fails to make mark: Axis My India

(FILES) Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar being garlanded during a public meeting ahead of the state Assembly elections, in Samastipur district, Friday, Oct. 24, 2025. (PTI Photo)

Another exit poll has projected a landslide victory for the NDA in Bihar, leaving the Mahagathbandhan trailing far behind and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party facing a disappointing debut.

According to Axis My India, one of the country’s leading poll agencies, the BJP-led NDA is set to secure a clear majority over the RJD-led Grand Alliance, while Jan Suraaj may struggle to even open its account in the state.

The exit poll projects a strong lead for the NDA, which is expected to win 121 to 141 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to secure between 98 and 118 seats. Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party JSP and the AIMIM are each projected to win one seat, according to the survey.

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— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 12, 2025

A similar prediction of a return of the NDA government in Bihar was made by several exit poll surveys on Tuesday following the conclusion of the second and final phase of polls in the state.

While the Matrize Exit Poll forecast the NDA likely getting between 147-167 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 70-90, and the Jan Suraaj between 0-2 seats, Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145-160 seats for the NDA and 73-91 for the Mahagathbandhan.

ALSO READ: Prashant Kishor predicted ‘10 or 150 seats’ for Jan Suraaj. Exit polls hand him a humbling reality check

The People's Insight predicted 133-148 seats for the NDA, 87-102 for the Mahagathbandhan and 0-2 for Jan Suraaj, the People's Pulse gave 133-159 seats to the NDA, 75-101 to the Mahagathbandhan, and 0-5 to Prashant Kishore's party.

The JVC forecast 135-150 seats for the NDA and 88-103 for the Mahagathbandhan. The Polstrat predicted 133-148 seats for the NDA and 87-102 for the Mahagathbandhan.

While the Chanakya Strategies gave the NDA 130-138 eats, 100-108 to the Mahagathbandhan, and zero to Jan Suraaj, pollster P-Marq predicted the NDA to win 142-162 seats, Mahagathbandhan 80-98 and Jan Suraaj 1-4.

While the NDA, comprising the BJP, JD(U) and LJP (Ram Vilas) as the major alliance partners, is looking to return to power in Bihar, the opposition INDIA bloc, which has the RJD, the Congress and the Left parties as the main constituents, is looking to form the government with RJD's Tejashwi Yadav its chief ministerial face.

Bihar on Tuesday recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14 per cent, provisionally, at close of polling in the second and final phase of the high-stakes elections, seen as a veritable referendum on the state’s longest-serving Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.