Oil can certainly spike on supply fears, but unless there is a prolonged and meaningful disruption to physical supplies, prices may not sustain at levels that derail global growth, Gaurav Didwania of Qode Advisors said.
If the Nifty 50 consolidates, Milan Vaishnav expects the 23,000 level to stay defended.
From a longer-term perspective, a nearly two-year price correction and a sharp fall of around 15 percent in recent weeks have increased the attractiveness of Indian equities, said OmniScience's Ashwini Shami. According to him, the current Middle East crisis is expected to have a limited impact on the long-term earnings potential of Indian listed companies, as most of them are focused on the domestic economy.
Edelweiss MF's base case still assumes oil moderates if conflict de-escalates. Strategic stock releases by the International Energy Agency and temporary sanctions flexibility on Iranian cargoes are already acting as stabilizers, said Trideep Bhattacharya.
In the near term, risk-off sentiment can persist simply because visibility is low. Markets are still trying to assess whether this is a contained disruption or something more prolonged, said Marcellus' Arindam Mandal.
On the charts, Nifty faces strong resistance at 23,345–23,380, and until this zone is decisively breached alongside improvement in FII positioning, the broader undertone is likely to remain cautious with a sell-on-rise approach, said Sudeep Shah.
Overall, RBI MPC's stance is likely to be ‘pause with readiness to act’, rather than any immediate shift towards easing, said ALF Accurate's Rajesh Kothari.
Markets are clearly in an uncertain frame given the breakout of hostilities in Iran. What is most critical from an India point of view is the “new normal” for crude, said Jitendra Sriram of Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund.
The current Middle East crisis, if it persists over the next 3-4 months, will create a multi-year buying opportunity, said Mavenark's Phanisekhar Ponangi.
Sandeep Bagla of TRUST Mutual Fund believes West Asia war will be a long-drawn war between US and Iran. Hence, FY27 is likely to be a muted return generator from equity markets perspective, he said.
Once the immediate US-Israel-Iran conflict cools down, a positive move in equity markets is surely possible, but it might not be a “sharp” rally, said DSP's Anil Ghelani.
If oil prices remain closer to current levels rather than sustaining above $100, the direct impact on March quarter earnings is likely to remain limited for most sectors, said Anil Rego of Right Horizons PMS.
Karthick Jonagadla doesn't think oil supply concerns fade quickly from here. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still badly disrupted.
The relaxation in Press Note 3 is a meaningful shift in India’s FDI posture and signals a pragmatic recalibration of the earlier blanket restrictions on investment from land-bordering nations, said Sonam Srivastava
The volatility index serves as a crucial indicator of market stability, and a higher volatility in equity markets clearly indicates instability at the present juncture. The war in Middle East has been very tricky as it continues to escalate, said Naveen Kulkarni of Axis Securities PMS.
Given the current chart structure and weak momentum setup, any near term rebound, if it occurs, is likely to attract fresh selling interest, especially near resistance zones, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Strait of Hormuz blockage might not last beyond month of March 2026 as blockage impact almost every Asian country and extended blockage might warrant a direct military participation from multiple players, said Karan Aggarwal.
With multiple commodities moving together right now, the cumulative inflation impulse could be larger than the headline crude number alone implies, said LGT's Chakri Lokapriya.
Sustained high oil prices not only fuels inflation but pressures the rupee, bond yields, and equity sentiment. Markets hate uncertainty; volatility rises as investors recalibrate risks in response to events, said Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mahindra AMC.
Nimesh Chandan remains positive on domestic-oriented sectors, as they are better insulated from global uncertainties.
The resolution of the Hormuz issue will definitely be a positive signal for the markets. But without resolution of the ongoing war it does not signal full market optimism, said Vikas Gupta.
According to Rahul Ghose, a close below 24,300 would turn this market into a sell on rallies, from buy on dips from a trading perspective. Only a substantial visible improvement in the geopolitical situation would change this outlook.
FY27 presents a clearer runway for earnings improvement with valuations no longer stretched and interest rates easing, the earnings cycle appears poised for gradual acceleration This year should be better than last calendar year gone by, said Carnelian’s Swati Khemani.
LNG price spikes also merit attention — city gas distribution companies and fertiliser manufacturers with spot LNG exposure could see meaningful input cost pressure if the disruption persists into Q4, said Valtrust's Rahul Bhutoria.
Considering the current chart structure and overall market setup, Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities continues to recommend a sell on rally approach.