Chartist Talk: Nifty risks fall to 23,000 on weekly close below 24,300; Rahul Ghose bullish on Sun Pharma, ABB

Rahul Ghose is the Founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged

• Nifty closing below 24,300 would turn this market into a sell on rallies
• Weekly close below 24,300 could push Nifty to 23,000
• Bullish on Sun Pharma, ABB in correction

Did our AI summary help?

Technically, the Nifty 50 has given all the bearish indications. A close below 24,300 would be the final confirmation for bears as it would breach key support, and the next levels for Nifty would be 23,000/21,500, said Rahul Ghose, the Founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, a close below 24,300 would turn this market into a sell on rallies, from buy on dips from a trading perspective. Only a substantial visible improvement in the geopolitical situation would change this outlook, he said.

He bets on Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and ABB India in the current market fall. "Sun Pharma looks strong on a monthly time frame with a potential channel breakout above Rs 1,837, while ABB is showing a breakout from a rectangular channel range with potential for further upside in the near term.

Given the subdued market environment, what is your trading strategy for next week?

The current geopolitical situation looks fragile, and it is not showing signs of getting any better. As far as Indian markets are considered, technically Crude oil prices are showing signs of a sharp upmove. India, being a heavy importer of crude, if prices stay elevated, it will start showing up in the current account, inflation expectations, and by extension, equity valuations.

Even though the US has given India a 30-day window to import crude from Russia, no one knows if the situation will be under control within 30 days, which means the market will keep reacting to every incremental headline until there is clearer visibility on supply normalisation. Technically, the Nifty 50 has given all the bearish indications.

A close below 24,300 would be the final confirmation for bears as it would breach key support. The next levels for Nifty would be 23,000/21,500. A close below 24,300 would turn this market into a sell on rallies, from buy on dips from a trading perspective. Only a substantial visible improvement in the geopolitical situation would change this outlook.

I would stay tactically bearish-to-neutral with a “sell-on-rise, buy-only-at-extremes” approach rather than deploying directional bets aggressively on day one. The idea is to respect the current risk-off setup but not chase gaps, given the amount of geopolitical risk already priced into the last leg of the fall and the sharp spike in crude.

Broad plan:

• Keep gross exposure light, focus on intraday/2–3-day swings rather than positional leverage.

• Sell out-of-the-money Call spreads on Nifty/Bank Nifty near resistance, hedge with limited Put exposure around key supports.

• Deploy fresh cash equity in a staggered fashion in 3–4 tranches, not all at once, into selected high-conviction names only.

Do you think the Nifty 50 is likely to decisively break 24,300 or the current week's low next week, given that the bears currently have the upper hand?

Medium-term trend is intact, but short-term momentum and risk sentiment clearly favour the bears after the recent geopolitical flare-up and the surge in Brent crude oil prices.

With all the key averages (50/100/200) broken, momentum indicators turning bearish, a series of bearish candlestick formations breach of the current week's low looks most likely. As mentioned earlier, a weekly close below 24,300 would turn this into a sell-on-rally market. Only a strong engulfing bull/hammer-like candle with volume surge, near key support levels, would change this view. That probability looks less likely, looking at the current geopolitical context.

What are the key levels to watch for the Nifty 50, and how are FIIs positioned?

Support zone – 24,300-24,00. Huge Put positions built up at 24,000 would mean a temporary bounce can be expected from those levels. Resistance levels would be 24,800, followed by 25,000. A huge call built up at 25,000 would make it difficult for markets to close above that level easily.

On the FII side, the derivatives data show FIIs have been net sellers in index futures in recent sessions, with a negative bias in index futures and index options indicating more protective or speculative bearish positioning. The cash/F&O mix is consistent with them using futures to hedge or express short-term caution rather than outright capitulation, which usually happens with large cash outflows plus extreme short futures positioning.

Based on the charts, do you see oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel next week?

Technically, Brent crude has broken out of a weekly Bollinger band squeeze with good volumes. The next strong resistance for Brent crude is around $110-120 a barrel in the short to medium term.

Do you expect a sharp downside in the Bank Nifty if the index breaks its 200-day EMA?

Yes, Bank Nifty looks precarious after its weekly close. It is showing signs of a rising wedge pattern breakdown, which is not a good sign for the bulls. If the banking index further breaks the psychological 200 DEMA, one can expect a further sharp downmove till the 54,300 levels.

Which two stocks would you like to buy in the current market fall?

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries

Sun Pharma looks strong on a monthly time frame with a potential channel breakout above Rs 1,837. Momentum indicators are steady and favouring an up move. Further, during the geopolitical turmoil as we are observing now, defensives like pharma are likely to outperform as they are largely immune to geopolitical risk.

ABB India

This is a tactical play on the current geopolitical situation. ABB is an active player in the defense sector, providing specialized technologies for aerospace, marine, and land-based applications. The stock is showing signs of a breakout from a rectangular channel range with potential for further upside in the near term.

Have you observed a double-bottom formation in Jupiter Wagons Limited, followed by a rally?

Recent price action shows a sharp bounce. The stock closed near Rs 254.8 on the prior day and spiked to around Rs 305 intraday on March 6, with a low near Rs 251.3. That structure is consistent with a double-bottom/accumulation attempt around the Rs 250–255 zone, followed by a strong rally day with a wide range and good intraday momentum.

For trading, as long as Rs 250–252 holds on a closing basis, I would treat this as a valid double-bottom zone and use dips towards Rs 260–265 to accumulate with a tight stop below that band.

Upside in the immediate week is possible, but after a 10%+ swing in a day, I would not chase gap-ups; rather, I’d wait for a 3–5% intraday pullback to enter