Exit polls predict Congress flop show: Did Rahul Gandhi's magic fail in Bihar?

Congress MP Rahul Gandhi's campaign in Bihar failed to lift the Congress from its previous tally, suggest exit polls. (File photo)

The initial push provided by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi through his campaign against "vote-chori", a concerted campaign against the SIR conducted by Election Commission of India may have all failed to convert the Congress into a credible stakeholder in Bihar.

The exit poll predictions for the Bihar Assembly elections that concluded with the second-phase voting on Tuesday suggested another setback for the Congress party in the state. As per the 'News18 Mega Exit Poll' for Bihar, the Congress is projected to win 15-20 seats, maintaining a status quo as compared to its 2020 tally of 19 seats.

In the 2020 polls, the Congress' dismal strike rate -- it won 19 of the 70 seats it contested -- was cited as one of the primary reasons why the Mahagathbandhan was restricted to 110 seats in the 243-member Assembly. This, despite the RJD emerging as the single-largest party in the 2020 polls with victories in 75 seats.

Any further dip in the Congress tally will underscore the party's continuing decline in Bihar as well as raise questions once again about Rahul Gandhi's leadership and the party's ability to rebuild itself in Hindi-belt states.

Despite being a partner in the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, the Congress has consistently failed to translate alliance arithmetic into electoral performance. In 2015, it had won 27 of 41 seats it contested; by 2020, that number dropped to 19 out of 70, even as its vote share rose to 9.6%.

A similar performance this time, as exit polls suggest, would reinforce the perception that the Congress remains organisationally hollow, dependent almost entirely on RJD's cadre and resources. The absence of a charismatic state-level face, weak booth-level networks, and factionalism have eroded its base across most of Bihar's 243 constituencies.

An underperforming Congress also makes alliance management more complicated for the Opposition on a national level. Within the INDIA bloc, Congress is seen as the custodian of national and constitutional values — a perception that resonates with educated, urban, and first-time voters seeking ideological alternatives to the ruling NDA. However, the party's sustained underperformance in polls state after state leaves the INDIA bloc too in a peculiar position.

How long does it allow the Congress to place itself on a higher pedestal than others?

Strategically, it would also cast a shadow over the INDIA bloc’s ability to project itself as a cohesive alternative to the NDA in the run-up to the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

For Rahul Gandhi, such a setback reinforces the long-standing critique that while his campaigns succeed in drawing attention, they rarely convert into votes. In Bihar, as in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress's struggle to be seen not as a junior partner, but as a credible force in its own right, continues.