Exit polls predict big win for JD(U)-led NDA in Bihar: Has 'Sushasan Babu' done it again?

For nearly two decades, Nitish Kumar was sold as Sushasan Babu, the face of Bihar’s turnaround.

After the second and last phase of Bihar election ended on Tuesday, exit polls projected a clear edge for the ruling NDA under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The JD(U) is expected to emerge as the single largest party.

As per exit poll projections, the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan may have to wait some more while Bihar looks all set to welcome Nitish Kumar, the longest-serving chief minister of the state, back to power.

The Nitish factor

Nitish Kumar remained a much-ridiculed politician in Bihar ever since the elections were announced. The CM, eyeing his fifth consecutive term, was targeted by the Opposition which accused him of being “remote-controlled” by the BJP and raised concerns about his health and potential impact on governance.

While the Opposition questioned the CM’s capacity to lead, NDA emphasised his “Sushasan Babu” legacy.

If JD(U) wins, it will once again be proved that Nitish Kumar’s legacy rests on three pillars: order, welfare, and continuity.

For many in Bihar, Nitish is still the man who restored dignity to governance after the collapse of the “jungle raj” in 1990s.

His strength also lies in a steady bank of women voters who see him not just a leader, but a partner in their journey toward empowerment and equality.

Some experts believe that the Rs 10,000 dole per eligible poor woman—in the guise of a to-be-returned investment loan—is a game changer for Nitish and the NDA. His government also promised an additional Rs 2 lakh if employment is generated.

As Bihar awaits the results on November 14, Nitish Kumar continues to be a decisive factor in JD(U)’s performance and the poll outcome.

Who predicted what?

The News18 Mega Exit Poll 2025 predicted that the NDA will win 140-150 seats while the Mahagathbandhan will bag 85-95 seats. Meanwhile, the Jan Suraaj Party will win 0-5 seats while others will secure 5-10 seats. The JD(U) is expected to win 60-70 seats while the BJP can win 55-65 seats. The majority mark is 122.

According to the Matrize-IANS exit poll, the NDA will win 147-167 seats. The opposition Mahagathbandhan alliance is likely to win 70-90 seats, and the Jan Suraaj Party is expected to get 0-2 seats.

People's Insight also predicted a major victory for NDA with 133–148 seats, followed by the Mahagathbandhan (87–102) seats, Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) 0–2 seats, and others 3–6 seats.

People's Pulse also showed the NDA will win 133-159 seats while the INDIA bloc will win 75-101 seats.

Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll projected NDA’s win with 145-160 seats, while Mahagathbandhan is likely to get 73-91 seats.

According to the exit poll results published by JVC, NDA is likely to win 135-150 seats, MGB is likely to win 88-103 seats and Jan Suraaj is likely to win 0-1 seats.

What happened in 2020?

In 2020, NDA held onto power with 125 out of 243 seats. The BJP dominated the coalition with 74 wins from 110 constituencies, JD(U) secured 43 from 115, and HAM added 4 victories from 7 contested seats. The Mahagathbandhan had finished close behind with 110 seats — the RJD leading with 75, Congress capturing 19, CPI-ML taking 12, and both CPI and CPM winning 2 each.