Bihar exit poll results: Landslide for NDA, crash-landing for Tejashwi's Grand Alliance, Prashant Kishor eats humble pie

It's phir ek baar, NDA sarkar, in Bihar, as per the exit polls with pollsters on Tuesday unanimously predicting a landslide victory for the BJP-JD(U) alliance in the state and a massive setback for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan.

A poll of 10 exit polls has predicted 148 seats for the NDA in the 243-member assembly, an impressive improvement from its tally of 125 in 2020. Meanwhile, the exit polls have forecast a grim reality check for the Mahagathbandhan of RJD and Congress with a prediction of just 90 seats, down from its tally of 110 in 2020.

Exit Poll predictions: Live updates

Exit polls also predicted a disappointing debut for Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj, with most pollsters predicting that the newly-formed party may not even open its account in its first electoral contest.

According to News18's Mega Exit Poll, the NDA is poised to win 145 seats in Bihar while the Mahagathbandhan will settle for 90 seats. A granular look at the predictions show that Nitish Kumar is likely to power NDA's thumping victory in the state with his JD(U) set to win 65 seats to emerge as the single largest party.

The News18 predictions show that BJP may see an erosion of a few seats in 2025, similar to the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, but will hold its fort in the state. The saffron party is expected to win 60 seats in 2025, down from 74 in 2020. Notably, it contested fewer seats (101 in 2025 vs 110 in 2020) after the inclusion of Chirag Paswan-led LJP(RV) in the NDA fold.

What if the exit poll predictions hold true?

While exit polls for the recent assembly elections showed mixed predictions, all surveys for Bihar point to an emphatic win for the NDA. If the predictions hold, BJP will cap the year with another electoral triumph after a stunning comeback in Delhi in February. The victory will also be a big vote of confidence for the NDA, coming over a year after it saw a large erosion of seats in the general election.

For Nitish, it will be a personal victory of sorts, as the predictions suggest that the people of Bihar remain firmly behind the “Sushashan Babu” despite his many political U-turns and lingering concerns over his health.

The predictions also call for a serious introspection for the RJD, which has been struggling to script a comeback on its own ever since the end of the Lalu-Rabri era. The exit poll forecast also shows that Congress, which was riding high after the Lok Sabha polls, continues to remain a non-factor in state polls amid dominance of regional parties and inroads made by BJP.

For Prashant Kishor, the man who has scripted victories for many political parties, the projections underline the stark difference between being a coach in the dugout and a batter facing the heat on the pitch.

Results of Bihar elections 2020

In 2020, the NDA led by BJP and JD(U) secured a narrow victory in the state, winning 125 out of the 243 seats. The BJP led the alliance's tally, winning 74 seats while Nitish Kumar's JD(U) bagged 43.

Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan managed to take the fight to the NDA, primarily due to a spirited performance by the RJD which was the single largest party in Bihar. The RJD had won 75 seats while its ally Congress managed to bag just 19. Other Left Parties won 16 seats.

Notably, despite failing the form the government in the state, RJD cornered the largest vote share in 2020 at 23%. It was followed BJP, which secured a vote share of 19.5%.

How accurate were exit poll predictions in 2020?

In the previous assembly elections, a majority pollsters had predicted a victory for the Grand Alliance of RJD and Congress. Most exit polls projected a cruising victory for the RJD-led alliance. However, the predictions did not hold true as the NDA edged out the Mahagathbandhan.

What's at stake in Bihar

Bihar witnessed a clash of two heavyweight alliances in the 2025 polls, with Prashant Kishor's newly-formed Jan Suraaj vying to be the third front in the battle.

On one side stands the ruling NDA — comprising the BJP, JD(U), LJP (RV) and HAM — while on the other is the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) of RJD, Congress and Left parties as key allies.

In 2025, chief minister Nitish Kumar is facing his biggest test in the state as he eyes a record 10th term in office. Known for his trademark flip-flops that have helped him maintain a tight hold on power, Nitish now faces mounting anti-incumbency, shrinking influence within the NDA and rising concerns over his health.

The elections are also a litmus test for BJP, which has emerged as the main force in the NDA despite the absence of a bankable face. Riding primarily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity, the party has carved a space for itself in the state and is biggest hurdle for the Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD, election after election.

For Tejashwi, the election is yet another opportunity to revive RJD’s dominance in Bihar and carry forward the legacy of his parents. The Yadav scion came close in 2020 when RJD emerged as the single largest party in Bihar. However, the numbers weren't enough to form the government. Though Tejashwi is often bogged down by the jungle raj-era legacy of his father, he remains the principal challenger to Nitish Kumar’s long-standing hold over Bihar politics.

Finally, the polls will also be the first political test for Prashant Kishor, the poll strategist who has emerged from the backroom and onto the main stage as he faces the biggest election of his career — with skin in the game. In the run up to the polls, Kishor has decided to shun the traditional caste politics for a more development-oriented poll plank, a gamble that can cut both ways.