Brent crashes 15%, drops below $100/bbl after Trump pauses strikes on Iran energy sites

Trump cites “productive” US-Iran talks, delays strikes on energy infrastructure as markets react to easing tensions.

• Oil prices dropped over 13% after Trump postponed Iran strikes
• Goldman lifts oil outlook on Hormuz supply disruption risks
• IEA taps 400M barrels from reserves on supply worries

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Oil prices fell by over 13% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would order the military to postpone any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

Brent crude futures had fallen around $17, or 15 percent to a session low of $96 a barrel by 1108 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate had fallen $13, or about 13.5 percent, to a session low of $85.28.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the US and Iran had engaged in talks over the past two days regarding a “complete and total resolution” of hostilities in the Middle East. He added that he had instructed the Department of War to postpone “any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period.”

The development follows an earlier ultimatum from Trump giving Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route. It remains unclear when normal traffic through the strait will resume.

Goldman raises oil forecasts amid supply risks

Goldman Sachs, as cited by CNBC, on Monday sharply increased its oil price forecasts, citing continued disruption risks tied to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank now expects Brent crude to average $110 per barrel in March and April, up from an earlier estimate of $98. It also revised its WTI outlook to $98 in March and $105 in April.

Goldman analysts said prices are likely to trend higher if flows through Hormuz remain at around 5% of normal levels through April 10. They added that concerns around concentrated supply and limited spare capacity could drive governments to increase stockpiling and push up longer-dated oil prices.

The bank also said that if reduced flows persist for 10 weeks, Brent crude could exceed its 2008 peak. Brent had reached about $147 per barrel in July 2008 before falling sharply during the global financial crisis.

Gopinath flags oil uncertainty as outlook hinges on next 24 hours

Gita Gopinath, economist and former Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said the near-term outlook for oil prices remains highly uncertain and depends on how the situation evolves over the next 24 hours.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Gopinath said markets are currently pricing oil at around $80 per barrel, but warned that escalation risks could push prices significantly higher, with $100 per barrel emerging as a plausible scenario under adverse conditions.

She said the trajectory of oil prices would be closely linked to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and broader conflict dynamics, noting that the situation remains in a “wait-and-see mode” given the fluid geopolitical backdrop.

Hormuz disruption at the centre of market volatility

The Strait of Hormuz typically handles around 20 percent of global oil supply, making it one of the most critical chokepoints for energy markets.

Iranian state media said on Sunday that Tehran would allow safe passage through the strait, except for vessels linked to what it described as “Iran’s enemies.”

The current tensions follow a period of escalating conflict in West Asia, including threats to shipping routes and energy infrastructure.

IEA flags severity, taps strategic reserves

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Monday that the situation in the Middle East is “very severe,” adding that it is more significant than the oil shocks of the 1970s combined with the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on gas markets.

IEA member countries agreed on March 11 to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to address supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.

Birol said he has been consulting governments in Asia and Europe about the possibility of additional releases if required, while stressing that reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains the most important solution to stabilising markets.