Will Chirag Paswan repeat 2024 Lok Sabha magic? Here are exit poll predictions for LJP (RV)

Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan

A mega exit poll conducted by News18 indicated that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is heading for a clear lead in the Bihar Assembly elections. The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) led by Chirag Paswan is expected to win 10-15 seats.

Under the NDA seat-sharing arrangement, LJP-RV contested 29 out of the 243 assembly seats, while BJP and JD(U) will field candidates in 101 seats each.

Paswan's electoral performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls strengthened his bargaining position. LJP(RV) contested five seats in Bihar and won all five, registering a 100% success rate.

In the 2020 assembly election, Chirag Paswan was unhappy at being denied 30 seats in the alliance. He decided to contest alone. Though the party got just one seat, it managed to slice through a crucial chunk of the NDA vote by impacting nearly 29 of the 58 constituencies that the JD(U) was trailing on.

According to the projections, in 2025, the NDA is expected to secure between 140 and 150 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly—comfortably above the halfway mark of 122.

It was said that Paswan shared strained ties with CM Nitish Kumar. However, Paswan on Monday described him as a "necessity" for the state, calling him a case study in political longevity despite challenges.

Speaking to ANI in an interview, Paswan said, "As a Political Science student, I would say that Nitish ji is a necessity, and I am saying this in a positive way. When I say that I am a student of politics, this is another case study. It would be very useful for my future if I could understand how you have remained in power for two decades despite all the highs and lows. You know, anti-incumbency is not seen against him today."

The Union Minister asserted that there is no anti-incumbency wave against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, attributing it to welfare schemes and public empathy towards the veteran leader's health.

"There is no anti-incumbency. I am saying this very honestly. I am saying this because, in 2020, I experienced that there were still complaints--this didn't happen, that didn't happen. But either because of welfare schemes or because of targeting Chief Minister Nitish Kumar ji personally... even the memes that were made. I mean, as far as his health is concerned, if you talk about the health of an elderly person, then we connect emotionally with them, just like when there is an elderly person in our family. In this way, the more people target him by saying he is in a state of unconsciousness, the more I see people connect with him. People say, look, he is fighting even then--and which is true also," he added.

Paswan further contrasted CM Nitish Kumar's campaign energy with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, questioning the latter's fitness and alertness. "When Tejashwi did not even leave the house and completed the negotiations, I saw that Chief Minister Nitish was busy campaigning. So now you tell me who is more fit and more alert health-wise," he said.

Paswan expressed that his relations with Nitish Kumar are excellent, highlighting that Kumar visited his home on Chhath to partake in Kharna Prasad. Paswan emphasised that such a gesture signifies positive ties, stating that if the relationship were not good, Kumar wouldn't have joined him for the occasion.

"Our relations are very good. He came to my house on the day of Chhath to eat Kharna Prasad. If the relations were not good, then why would he come to eat Kharna Prasad? And if he comes, if he wants to give the message, then it means that the relations are good," he said.