NDA on course for victory in Bihar, setback for Mahagathbandhan; Jan Suraaj barely registers: Vote Vibe exit poll

Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar - File Photo

The NDA is likely to secure a comfortable majority in Bihar, according to the latest exit poll by Vote Vibe. The survey projects that the NDA could win between 125 and 145 seats, which would be enough to form the next government in the 243-member Assembly.

The Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by the RJD, is projected to finish second with 95 to 115 seats, indicating a clear gap between the two major alliances.

The Jan Suraaj Party, contesting its first election under Prashant Kishor, is predicted to have only a limited presence with 0 to 2 seats. Meanwhile, others, including smaller parties and independents, are expected to win 1 to 3 seats.

If these projections hold true, the results would signal a decisive victory for the NDA, which appears to have retained its strong voter base across Bihar. The Mahagathbandhan’s expected performance shows that while it continues to hold sway in some traditional strongholds, it has not been able to close the gap with the ruling alliance.

Political observers believe the NDA’s advantage lies in its organisational strength, cohesive leadership, and voter outreach at the grassroots level. The RJD-led alliance, on the other hand, may have struggled to project unity and connect with younger and urban voters.

Several other exit polls, including India My Axis and Today's Chanakya, have also predicted decisive victory for the NDA and a dismal show by Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party.

As per Today’s Chanakya, the NDA is projected to win around 160 seats (±12), while the RJD-led Grand Alliance may secure about 77 seats (±12). Other parties are expected to win roughly 6 seats (±3), indicating a clear and commanding edge for the BJP-led coalition.

Axis My India has predicted 121 to 141 seats for the NDA, while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to secure between 98 and 118 seats. Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party JSP and the AIMIM are each projected to win one seat, according to the survey.

The Matrize Exit Poll forecast the NDA likely getting between 147-167 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 70-90, and the Jan Suraaj between 0-2 seats, while Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145-160 seats for the NDA and 73-91 for the Mahagathbandhan.

According to People’s Insight, the NDA is projected to win 133–148 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan may secure 87–102 seats and Jan Suraaj could manage 0–2 seats.

The People’s Pulse survey estimates 133–159 seats for the NDA, 75–101 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0–5 seats for Prashant Kishor’s party.

Similarly, the JVC poll forecasts 135–150 seats for the NDA and 88–103 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, while Polstrat projects 133–148 seats for the NDA and 87–102 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.

Meanwhile, Chanakya Strategies predicts 130–138 seats for the NDA, 100–108 for the Mahagathbandhan, and none for Jan Suraaj. The P-Marq exit poll offers the most optimistic outlook for the ruling alliance, projecting 142–162 seats for the NDA, 80–98 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 1–4 seats for Jan Suraaj.

The NDA, which includes the BJP, JD(U), and LJP (Ram Vilas) as its key partners, is aiming to retain power in Bihar, while the opposition INDIA bloc, comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, is hoping to form the next government with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate.

On Tuesday, Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14 percent (provisional) at the close of polling in the second and final phase of the fiercely contested elections, widely seen as a referendum on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s long tenure.