Congress candidate creates triangular mess in key Rajasthan clash

Traditionally a Congress bastion, the BJP has recently done well in this tribal belt.

It’s an electoral saga straight out of the "Believe it or Not" category. Leaders switching sides is hardly uncommon but the mess on Rajasthan’s Banswara seat is bizarre even by the sinking standards of Indian politics. The Congress flip-flop over its alliance with the Bharatiya Adivasi Party (BAP) for this Lok Sabha constituency is unique even by the Grand Old Party’s proclivity to score self-goals in recent times. Given the weird situation, what should have been a bipolar battle between the Congress-BAP alliance and the BJP on this tribal seat of south Rajasthan has turned into a triangular complexity!

Officially, the Banswara contest features BJP’s Mahendra Jeet Malviya, BAP’s Rajkumar Roat and Congress candidate  Arvind Damor who refused to withdraw his nomination despite orders from party leaders. Damor is no threat to the BAP or the BJP but his mere presence in the fray marks a historic embarrassment for the Congress.

The situation is such that Congress is now appealing to the people not to vote for its candidate. The local leadership of the Congress has appealed to the people to vote for Roat instead. However, Damor has claimed that he has the support of a section of the party leaders who are against the alliance with the BAP.

The roots of this sordid mess lie in the failure of the Congress and BAP to forge an alliance despite months of discussions and a common aim to prevent a BJP win in Banswara. In fact, the two sides had tried to stitch an alliance even before the assembly polls in 2023 but it did not materialise and ultimately, BAP on its own won three assembly seats in this tribal belt.

Given the growing support for BAP, the central Congress leadership wanted an alliance with the tribal party. But local leaders in Banswara and Dungarpur were opposed to this tie up which they felt would damage future Congress prospects in this region.As Congress dithered, BAP went ahead and announced sitting MLA Rajkumar Roat as its candidate; within hours, the Congress too made youth leader Arjun Damor its candidate.

After hectic parleys, a Congress-BAP alliance was soon announced but Congress candidate Damor refused to withdraw his nomination, despite warnings from party leaders. Instead, he claimed on social media that he would fight the election to ‘safeguard the honour’ of the Congress and Rahul Gandhi. The Congress soon expelled him, but Damor has refused to relent even after his party issued an open appeal for people to support the BAP candidate.

With Damor staying in the fray, many believe its advantage BJP which has fielded Mahendra Jeet Malviya, a Congress strongman who switched to the BJP in February.A tribal strongman, four-time MLA and former cabinet minister in the Gehlot government, Malviya was also a Congress Working Committee member since last year.

Shortly after his defection, Malviya was announced as BJP candidate in its first list in early March. In that sense, he has a month-long edge in campaigning on the Banswara seat. Most  political insiders in the tribal belt claim that Malviya is behind Congress candidate Damor not withdrawing his nomination as that would confuse voters and dampen the prospects of BAP candidate Rajkumar Roat.

Traditionally a Congress bastion, the BJP has recently done well in this tribal belt which has seen intense saffronisation over the past 25 years. South Rajasthan districts of Banswara, Dungarpur and Udaipur account for nearly two thirds of Rajasthan’s 14% tribal population. They have gradually become a citadel of the Vanvasi Kalyan Parishad, an RSS affiliate which works here and pushes a Hindutva agenda through schools, cultural groups and even medical camps. In this context, Malviya's switch was a major blow to the Congress and aims to bolster BJP-RSS presence in tribal areas.

Inspite of first-mover advantage to BJP’s Malviya, political circles are buzzing that BAP candidate Rajkumar Roat has an even chance. The BAP’s support base has rapidly grown in south Rajasthan via its emphasis on tribal identity, demand for a separate State for the tribal community and the promise for 75% reservation in education and jobs for tribals. In addition, Roat’s youth, clean image and commitment to Adivasi causes and tribal rights has brightened BAP’s electoral prospects.

The Congress-BAP alliance, despite triggering a huge mess,holds much promise.Though the  BJP won the Rajasthan assembly elections last year, the Saffron party got just two seats in the tribal districts of Dungarpur and Banswara where all nine assembly constituencies are reserved for Scheduled Tribes. In contrast, the BAP won three seats and the Congress was  victorious in four constituencies.

By forging an alliance in an area where they together hold 7 of 9 assembly seats, the Congress-BAP combo hopes to upset the BJP which won the Banswara seat by huge margins in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The personal popularity of BAP’s Rajkumar Roat may also be a challenge for BJP’s Malviya as Roat won his Chorasi Assembly seat last December by over 69000 votes, one of the largest victory margins in the state.

The Banswara campaign has thrown up a range of issues pertinent to tribal communities, including land rights, forest conservation, and access to education and healthcare. But the shrillest debate has centred around the Adivasi-Vanvasi row over the apt nomenclature for tribal communities. The Congress-BAP employ “Adivasi” or original inhabitants for tribals while BJP prefers the “Vanvasi” or forest dwellers as per the RSS choice – and this debate and what it says about the respective politics/mindsets of both sides has flared up in the electoral arena. While the Congress-BAP are working on their caste/tribe calculations, the BJP has focussed mainly on Hindutva agenda and Modi charisma.

Quite suddenly, a rally by PM Narendra Modi on Sunday pushed Banswara into the national spotlight. The PM’s speech in this rally has ignited a political storm. Attacking the Congress for promising to conduct a wealth redistribution survey, PM Modi claimed that if the Congress is elected to power it will give the nation’s wealth to “those who have more children” and “infiltrators” (read Muslims). The Opposition claims Modi is playing divisive politics to woo votes. Besides stoking a national furore, how this row will impact voters in this tribal belt is now a tantalising imponderable of the Banswara battle.

As the countdown begins for voting on April 26, Banswara is clearly a fierce contest between BJP and BAP supported by the Congress. But the presence of a candidate with the Congress symbol in the fray could confuse voters and dent BAP support. Like in Bollywood movies featuring triangular romances, the climax to the weird triangular tryst in Banswara is tough to predict.This rousing battle in the tribal heartland of Rajasthan could swing any which way!