West Bengal Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Why BJP stands to gain from Mamata's go-it-alone strategy?

West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee. (File photo)

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the emergence of the INDIA—the coalition of Opposition parties—ignited considerable enthusiasm aimed at impeding the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP’s) progress. For a moment, it appeared that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's path might face significant obstacles this time around. However, just as it approached the finish line, the INDIA alliance encountered setbacks. Initially, Janata Dal (United) chief and Bihar Chief Minister (CM) Nitish Kumar's retreat set off ripples of uncertainty, and now, shadows of doubt linger over West Bengal. Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee's decision to field candidates on all 42 seats in the state has further complicated the electoral landscape, leaving the Congress party in a state of flux. The crucial questions emerge: how will India challenge the BJP? What narrative does INDIA convey by exposing these internal divisions?

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Political Dynamics Favouring BJP Amid Oppn Shifts

Experts observe that the evolving dynamics within the opposition, marked by changes in both politics and strategy, seem to have deviated from their initial destination. This shift could potentially strengthen the BJP's position significantly in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections scheduled for April-May.

Fractured Oppn Alliance Spells Trouble Ahead of Polls

Months before the general elections, several key allies within the coalition took on adversarial stances, validating the belief that the Opposition lacks the essential political cohesion and ideological unity required to effectively challenge the BJP. The fate and stability of the alliance hinged on these conflicting interests, which intensified and ultimately dismantled it like a fragile house of cards. The resolution of the intricate seat-sharing puzzle emerged as a particularly challenging test. The unfolding events undeniably put the Congress on the defensive, as opposition leaders continue to see Mamata’s indispensability to the Opposition's cause.

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TMC's Electoral Strategy: Branding BJP as 'Outsiders'

Mamata had grown increasingly disenchanted due to the delay in finalising a seat-sharing agreement. Over the past few months, she repeatedly emphasised that the TMC would pursue its electoral goals independently, while placing blame on the Congress for the breakdown of the alliance in the state. Reports suggest that the party's electoral strategists concluded that framing the BJP as "outsiders" and accusing the Centre of neglecting Bengal was the most effective approach to prevent PM Modi from gaining traction among the state's voters.

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Mamata, Abhishek Present Unified Front

The joint appearance of both Mamata and her heir apparent, Abhishek Banerjee, at the Brigade on March 10 appears to have dispelled the confusion among party ranks, which had been dismayed for the past few months by reports of differences between the aunt and nephew that had slowed down poll preparations. Abhishek is set to hold five major rallies between March 14 and 22, starting with Jalpaiguri. Additionally, smaller meetings addressing identity-based concerns with various communities are lined up. A meeting with the SC, ST, and OBC communities is scheduled at the Netaji Indoor Stadium for March 12. More importantly, around 85 campaign meetings has been planned for Mamata, and she is likely to start crisscrossing the state from next week.

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The Stage is Set: TMC vs BJP

The upcoming electoral clash is poised to unfold as a direct showdown between the TMC and the BJP. In the 2019 elections, the TMC clinched 22 seats compared to the BJP's 18, with respective vote percentages of 43.3 and 40.7, indicating a closely contested contest. However, a significant shift occurred just two years later in 2021 when Mamata steered the TMC to a resounding victory in the state assembly elections, securing an impressive 215 seats. Despite the BJP's vigorous campaigning, it only managed to secure 77 seats. This victory, however, marked substantial departure from the BJP's relatively modest performance in the 2016 state elections, where they garnered a mere three seats.

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The BJP's noteworthy surge saw a substantial gain of 74 seats, accompanied by a remarkable rise in their vote share from 10.16 percent to 38.15 percent. Nonetheless, despite these gains, the TMC retained its stronghold, increasing its seat count by four and widening its lead with a vote share exceeding 48 percent.

TMC's Full Candidate List Sets Stage for Binary Politics

“With the TMC revealing its full list of candidates, the prospect of the INDIA alliance appears all but over. This development is poised to offer electoral advantages to both the BJP and the TMC, effectively setting the stage for binary politics. By nurturing this bipolarity, both the parties mutually bolster each other’s narratives. The BJP endeavours to solidify its voter base by spotlighting issues such as misgovernance, corruption, and what it perceives as the TMC's preferential treatment toward Muslims. On the other hand, the TMC aims to shore up its support among Muslim voters by invoking concerns about the BJP, including apprehensions regarding the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

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The spotlight now shifts to whether the Left, Congress, and Indian Secular Front (ISF) will form alliances reminiscent of those witnessed in the 2021 assembly elections, potentially disrupting the prevailing binary dynamic,” observers Abdul Matin, assistant professor of Political Science at Jadavpur University, Kolkata.

The Road Ahead After TMC's 'Ekla Chalo Re' Journey

At this critical juncture, the pressing question remains: what lies ahead following Mamata's "Ekla Chalo Re" journey? With its 42 seats, West Bengal stands as one of India's most influential states and a frontrunner in the eastern electoral zone. Even a marginal increase in the BJP's 2019 tally of 18 seats would bring them closer to their stated target of securing 370 seats independently. For Mamata, this election doesn't represent a make-or-break scenario, given her control over the state until 2026. However, a significant surge in her party's seat count would position her as the primary opposition leader.

Fluid Political Landscape

"The current situation remains fluid, making it challenging to anticipate the direction of the political winds. Mamata's strategy is evidently aimed at exerting pressure on the Congress and Left parties to form an alliance in support of TMC candidates, reminiscent of their collaboration in the 2021 Assembly polls. Such an anti-BJP alignment would likely bolster Mamata's electoral prospects. It's worth noting that TMC, Congress, and Left parties share a common support base, and even a slight fracture in this coalition could significantly benefit the saffron party in the upcoming elections. Moreover, for this strategy to succeed, the Congress must operate cohesively to provide leverage to the TMC, although current indications suggest this may not be the case this time around," says AK Verma, Director, Centre for the Study of Society and Politics (CSSP), Kanpur.

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TMC Confronts Rural Women's Rebellion

For the first time, the TMC government faced a rebellion led by rural women protesting what they described as a reign of terror by local party leaders in Sandeshkhali. This incident has exposed the government's failure to control its own members. The developments in Sandeshkhali are seen as a major setback for the Trinamool ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, particularly given Mamata Banerjee's strong emphasis on her government's efforts to empower socio-economically disadvantaged women in the state. Moreover, Mamata, as a female Chief Minister, was widely expected to protect the women of her state.

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Sandeshkhali: Impact on TMC's Female Support Base

"The Sandeshkhali phenomenon is likely to have an impact in the southern Bengal districts due to widespread hooliganism and corruption by local TMC leaders. There is a possibility of a decline in women's support for the TMC as a result. In an effort to counter this, the TMC government has recently raised the monthly cash assistance scheme known as Lakshmir Bhandar from Rs 500 to Rs 1,000 for general women and from Rs 1,000 to Rs 1,200 for SC/ST women," argues Stain.