Battle of the Yadavs in Alwar: Will ‘outsider’ Bhupendra make his Lok Sabha debut or will ‘local’ Lalit spring a big surprise?

With a seasoned BJP leader and a key minister of PM Modi’s cabinet battling a young, rising star of the Congress, Alwar is a high-stakes contest where both the central protagonists are battling hard to gain their maiden entry into the Lok Sabha.

The Lok Sabha clash in Alwar, widely regarded as Ground Zero of India's cow vigilantism, is perhaps the most intriguing electoral contest in Rajasthan. In this ‘Yadav vs Yadav’ battle, BJP veteran and Union Minister Bhupender Yadav is pitted against a young sitting MLA from the area, Lalit Yadav fielded by the Congress.

Located in north-east Rajasthan, Alwar shares a border with Haryana and forms a part of the Mewat region which has often hit the headlines over cow lynchings in recent years.

While it’s an electoral combat that’s been largely low key - both in mainstream and social media – the Alwar showdown is an intense battle of prestige. In this tight Congress-BJP fight, a lot is riding for both sides. With a seasoned BJP leader and a key minister of PM Modi’s cabinet battling a young, rising star of the Congress, Alwar is a high-stakes contest where both the central protagonists are battling hard to gain their maiden entry into the Lok Sabha.

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A win for the BJP is critical to not only bolster Bhupender Yadav’s leadership claims but also to underline the continuing popularity of PM Narendra Modi in a state where the Saffron brigade won all the seats in the last two Lok Sabha elections. For the Congress too a lot is on the line. Despite losing the recent Rajasthan elections, the Congress holds 5 of Alwar’s 8 assembly seats. Among those winners is Tika Ram Jully who is the first Dalit to become the Leader of Opposition in the state. He’s now keen to strengthen his leadership, and of course, candidate Lalit Yadav is eager to enhance his stature as a rising star of Rajasthan politics.

The prime focus of the Alwar election is Union Minister Bhupender Yadav who is known for his closeness to PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. He keeps a punishing schedule of over two dozen nukkad sabhas or corner meetings daily but far from listing his attributes or achievements, Bhupender banks primarily on ‘Modi magic’ to forge a popular connect. In most meetings he asserts, “its not an election between two parties. It’s an election to make Narendra Modi the PM  again and Abki baar 400 paar (this time, 400-plus seats).” He repeatedly stresses ‘Modi’s Guarantees’ and highlights the development works of the Modi government as his Mantra to impress voters.

In a fundamental way, this Lok Sabha election marks a major role reversal for Bhupender who has been a key poll manager for the BJP for years. He has handled backroom operations in several key states ranging from Bihar and UP to most recently Madhya Pradesh where in the 2023 assembly elections he helped BJP retain power in a crucial Hindi belt state. Though he is a two-term Rajya Sabha MP, Bhupender has no experience of contesting assembly or Lok Sabha elections and political observers say he has no option but to rely on ‘Modi magic’ to seek votes. Since his roots lie in Haryana, political circles are buzzing that he wanted to fight the Mahendragarh seat rather than Alwar and he’s now battling the ‘outsider’ tag.

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The challenge confronting Bhupender is far from easy. Lalit Yadav began his political career in the BSP but soon shifted to the Congress and in the Assembly polls last year he won the Mundawar seat with the highest margin in Alwar. At 34, Lalit is two decades younger than the 54-year-old Bhupender, and by fielding the emerging star of Alwar, the Congress has tried to make it a ‘Youth vs Old’ battle – and a large section of the youth is now rooting for the Congress candidate rather than the veteran Union Minister.

Moreover, Lalit has the local advantage with his grassroots connect in Alwar. Besides his fan base among the youth, many locals see Lalit as the future due to his youth. But others value Bhupender for his closeness to the BJP’s Top Brass in Delhi and say supporting him would be better as he can get their works done by directly approaching PM Modi. Which sentiment will ultimately prevail is tough to assess but the Congress is trying hard to build a ‘Local vs Outsider’ narrative as a running theme in this gripping contest.

Besides the ‘Local-Outsider’ debate, Bhupender’s task is complicated by the lackluster show of his two BJP predecessors in Alwar - Mahant Chandnath who won in 2014, and Baba Balaknath who triumphed in the 2019 elections. Neither of the two saffron-clad MPs lived up to their promises – and Alwar remains woefully backward. Despite being an industrial city, the people of Alwar are still yearning for basic facilities. Drinking water is a constant crisis and water for agricultural irrigation is just not available whereby the condition of farmers in the area is miserable. Though Bhupender is fighting his first Lok Sabha election, he is stepping into the anti-incumbency against two earlier BJP MPs who failed to tackle Alwar’s issues.

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The complex caste scenario in Alwar adds to Bhupender’s worries. There’s an intense tug of war over the dominant Yadav vote as both candidates belong to the same community. But with around 3.5 lakh voters from Meo/Muslim community and about 4.5 lakh SC voters being traditional Congress supporters, Bhupender has quite a task on his hands to woo them at a time when even the 1.2 lakh Jat voters are said to be miffed with the BJP.

Significantly, there’s no overtly aggressive campaign around cow politics in Alwar though the issue is being discussed in hushed tones. Given the caste complexities, both sides seem to be playing safe but polarisation can be sensed in the air. With the area having seen several incidents of mob lynchings/cow vigilantism, fissures and scars of old tragedies remain a dominant part of the popular psyche in the region. So far, both parties and candidates have refrained from deploying sharp cow-related rhetoric to woo voters but whether they will persist with this restraint is a key question as poll fever peaks.

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In a nutshell, the Alwar election is a fierce fight between an established BJP veteran and a promising newbie from the Congress. Both are working overtime to get their caste arithmetic and their cow calculations right. But the big imponderable is how the Modi factor will play out in this constituency close to Delhi.

As the voting day draws ever closer, all eyes are focused on whether Caste, Cow, or the PM's Charisma will ultimately decide which Yadav - Bhupender or Lalit - will make his Lok Sabha debut from Alwar!