BUSINESS
GDP growth surprises positively driven by investments despite a strong external sector drag
Headline GDP growth could slow in the second half but the momentum may sustain, putting the growth for full year around 6.5-6.8 percent comfortably. Global headwinds remain the biggest downside factor
BUSINESS
Global bond index inclusion can attract $20-50 billion in capital, but increases risks too
The move would help reduce interest costs and increase the availability of financial resources across the economy
BUSINESS
Services sector powers near 8% real GDP growth in Q1, highlights strong momentum
The domestically oriented nature of India’s growth is visible in the spending side break-up of the GDP estimates. Private consumption growth accelerated to 6% yoy during Q1FY24 from 2.83% yoy in Q4FY23, helped by strong and resilient urban demand
BUSINESS
As MPC holds rates, RBI impounds excess liquidity to counter upcoming inflation surge
The upward shift in the inflation trajectory, with strong domestic growth impulses, also signals that the MPC can maintain and extend this pause over the rest of the year, provided that the actual inflation prints are in line with the projected path
BUSINESS
RBI Monetary Policy: Why the MPC has signalled an extended pause
An unchanged policy stance gives MPC room to take appropriate action going forward, based on incoming data
BUSINESS
MPC pauses amidst global uncertainty, leaves room to act
It’s a pause, not a pivot, says RBI Governor
BUSINESS
FY23 GDP growth retained at 7% despite slower growth in Q3 and upgraded estimate for FY22
The outlook for private consumption remains relatively sombre as pent-up demand has been met this fiscal year with a complete recovery from the pandemic
BUSINESS
MPC's signal: Tightening cycle is not over yet
An unchanged stance signals that a majority of the MPC members are of the view that a terminal rate in the current tightening cycle has not yet been reached
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: A blueprint of how to boost growth prudently
But the elevated borrowing level may exert upward pressure on sovereign yields, against a backdrop of rising demand for bank credit
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: Strong global headwinds call for sharper focus on fiscal consolidation, capex push
The focus of policymakers must now shift from normalising activity impacted by the pandemic to securing the recovery through buttressing macro-economic stability by pursuing fiscal consolidation while maintaining capex support
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: Global headwinds call for caution on elevated twin deficits
To manage the heightened external risks, keeping the twin deficits in check would be crucial for the Union Budget 2023 to ensure macro-economic and financial stability
BUSINESS
MPC moves closer to a Neutral level and possibly a pause in early 2023
There’s room for more tightening ahead, especially as average inflation in the second half is seen at over 6 percent
BUSINESS
MPC set to raise rates by 50 bps, shift stance to Neutral and bolster support for the rupee
External risks have increased since the Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting and the pressure on the rupee will weigh heavily on their deliberations
BUSINESS
Is the Indian economy on the cusp of a new capex cycle?
Although bank and corporate balance sheets are in good shape, there’s still a lot of uncertainty, which is holding back private capex
BUSINESS
Is India's record trade deficit a reason for worry?
A sustainable downward correction in oil prices would be crucial in curbing the overall trade deficit, as everything else being equal, for every $1 increase in the price of crude oil, India’s trade deficit goes up by nearly $1 billion
BUSINESS
MPC gets aggressive on stimulus withdrawal as RBI sees inflation persisting well above 6%
As per the RBI’s Report on Currency and Finance of 2021, in response to policy tightening, output starts contracting after 3 quarters, whereas the peak impact of monetary tightening on CPI inflation occurs after 10 quarters
BUSINESS
GDP data confirm recovery from pandemic, but risks loom
Though private consumption managed to surpass its pre-pandemic level, it remained weak by historical standards, highlighting the risks to sustaining growth, especially as inflation is now rising and would dent discretionary consumption
BUSINESS
Rupee to remain under pressure as it catches up with other Asian majors
In trade weighted inflation adjusted REER terms, the Rupee was close to its fair value in March 2022 against a basket of 40 currencies. However, intensification of depreciation pressure on the Chinese Yuan would weigh on the Rupee and other Asian currencies to maintain competitiveness. A sharp depreciation in Yuan remains a key downside risk to the Rupee’s exchange rate
BUSINESS
Yields are hardening, what does the future hold for Indian bond market?
Limited intervention space would see RBI targeting the long end of the rising sovereign curve
BUSINESS
With rate hike, RBI signals removal of pandemic-era monetary stimulus
In spite of the likelihood of a series of rate hikes, policy may yet remain broadly supportive for growth as real policy rates may remain negative, with average CPI inflation exceeding the nominal Repo rate over the year
BUSINESS
Ukraine war: Oil shock should be mitigated through fiscal actions to sustain recovery
The spurt in oil prices is a shock to the economy and threatens the nascent recovery. But the government has several options before it to support growth
BUSINESS
Budget 2022 presses the accelerator on public capex, digital innovation
The path chosen is one of providing a sustainable growth push through investments in transportation, green energy and urban development
BUSINESS
Bond yields across the curve will drift upwards in 2022
There is likely to be a large supply of bonds for the market to absorb, which in the backdrop of improving bank credit demand, can add to upward pressure on yields
ECONOMY
An uneven multi-speed economic recovery to continue in 2022
While the outlook on growth has improved in the near-term, uncertainty remains beyond that time horizon, especially on the sustenance of the private consumption momentum
