BUSINESS
Fiscal consolidation and capex: Interim Budget strikes the right balance
The interim budget has used a positive economic backdrop to strengthen the long-term growth impulses provided by public investments, build back fiscal buffers to counter future shocks and aims to put public debt on a downward path to free up space for productive spending
BUSINESS
Union Budget 2024: Government must focus on capex, fiscal prudence to drive growth
For fiscal consolidation, the government will need to reduce its capital expenditure at a time when private capex is just starting to improve. Curbing capex poses a risk to growth and the interim budget must indicate a balance
BUSINESS
Room for limited monetary easing will open up in 2024
The recent IMF India country report on India notes that the current broadly neutral monetary policy is appropriate, based on the estimates of natural real interest rate of 1%. Based on that estimate and average inflation estimate of 5% in the next fiscal, Repo rate can be at 6% under a neutral stance – implying a 50 bps easing from the current level of 6.50%
BUSINESS
After a most stable 2023 performance, rupee set to gain in 2024
Strengthening external sector metrics, benign oil prices, robust portfolio dollar flows, monetary easing indicators and an anchored inflation will all contribute to the rupee’s strength in 2024
BUSINESS
GDP growth surprises positively driven by investments despite a strong external sector drag
Headline GDP growth could slow in the second half but the momentum may sustain, putting the growth for full year around 6.5-6.8 percent comfortably. Global headwinds remain the biggest downside factor
BUSINESS
Global bond index inclusion can attract $20-50 billion in capital, but increases risks too
The move would help reduce interest costs and increase the availability of financial resources across the economy
BUSINESS
Services sector powers near 8% real GDP growth in Q1, highlights strong momentum
The domestically oriented nature of India’s growth is visible in the spending side break-up of the GDP estimates. Private consumption growth accelerated to 6% yoy during Q1FY24 from 2.83% yoy in Q4FY23, helped by strong and resilient urban demand
BUSINESS
As MPC holds rates, RBI impounds excess liquidity to counter upcoming inflation surge
The upward shift in the inflation trajectory, with strong domestic growth impulses, also signals that the MPC can maintain and extend this pause over the rest of the year, provided that the actual inflation prints are in line with the projected path
BUSINESS
RBI Monetary Policy: Why the MPC has signalled an extended pause
BUSINESS
MPC pauses amidst global uncertainty, leaves room to act
BUSINESS
FY23 GDP growth retained at 7% despite slower growth in Q3 and upgraded estimate for FY22
BUSINESS
MPC's signal: Tightening cycle is not over yet
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: A blueprint of how to boost growth prudently
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: Strong global headwinds call for sharper focus on fiscal consolidation, capex push
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: Global headwinds call for caution on elevated twin deficits
BUSINESS
MPC moves closer to a Neutral level and possibly a pause in early 2023
BUSINESS
MPC set to raise rates by 50 bps, shift stance to Neutral and bolster support for the rupee
BUSINESS
Is the Indian economy on the cusp of a new capex cycle?
BUSINESS
Is India's record trade deficit a reason for worry?
BUSINESS
MPC gets aggressive on stimulus withdrawal as RBI sees inflation persisting well above 6%
BUSINESS
GDP data confirm recovery from pandemic, but risks loom
BUSINESS
Rupee to remain under pressure as it catches up with other Asian majors
BUSINESS
Yields are hardening, what does the future hold for Indian bond market?
BUSINESS
With rate hike, RBI signals removal of pandemic-era monetary stimulus
