What happens if Britain and France recognize a Palestinian state, and why it matters now

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and France's President Emmanuel Macron (Image: AFP)

Britain pledged to recognize the Palestinian state if Israel fails to reach an agreement on a cease-fire within a month, following France in an action that amounts to diplomatic pressure on Israel as the world grows more frustrated with its Gaza war. The move is a departure from traditional Western policy that made recognition of Palestine dependent on terms of peace talks, the New York Times reported.

Gaza war and West Bank unrest drive the shift

Both Paris and London are responding to the deteriorating humanitarian crisis in Gaza and increasing violence on the West Bank. The war, ignited by the Hamas October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, has resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian fatalities and brought two million to the edge of famine. Analysts are saying that these factors, combined with Israeli settlement growth and military actions in the West Bank, are changing policy in Europe.

What is a state in terms of international law

By the definition of the 1933 Montevideo Convention, a state ought to have a permanent population, defined territory, a government, and the ability to enter into foreign relations. The consensus among most practitioners of international law is that Palestine has these at least. The Palestinian Authority governs parts of the West Bank and is recognized by the United Nations as an observer state.

Recognition can reshape commerce and diplomacy

Commentators say recognition of Palestine would lead Britain and France back to treaties and trade with Israel so as not to overstep Palestinian authority. This may involve halting trade beginning in Israeli settlements, banning exports of arms, and upholding international law more rigorously in bilateral agreements. Recognition also strengthens the Palestinian push for full UN membership.

Most of the world already recognizes Palestine

As of July 2025, 147 of 193 UN member states recognize Palestine as a state. France and Britain would be signing up to this majority and joining fellow Security Council powers China and Russia. This would leave America as the sole permanent Security Council member to deny recognition—potentially further isolating Washington in international forums on the conflict.

Symbolic, but not without consequences

While recognition itself does not change things on the ground, it sustains the two-state formula that is the only viable path to peace in which most governments believe. Experts say it could encourage Palestinian diplomatic activity and turn the rhetoric of self-determination and accountability towards Israel. Netanyahu reacted negatively to these measures, saying that they were a reward for terrorism.

Recognition, while symbolic in the short run, may be a decisive moment in a larger process of redefining the Israeli-Palestinian relationship.