Trump wanted to break BRICS, his tariff gamble may end up doing opposite | Explained

File Photo - Heads of state and government of member, partner, and external engagement countries attend a plenary session of the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 7, 2025.

When US President Donald Trump rolled out his latest round of punishing tariffs against the world’s biggest emerging economies, his goal was clear: weaken BRICS, fracture its unity, and force each member to bargain with Washington on Trump’s terms.

Instead, Trump has triggered a diplomatic chain reaction that is drawing China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa closer together than they have been in years. In trying to undercut the bloc he sees as a threat to US dominance, Trump may be doing exactly what BRICS’ founders once dreamed of -- forging it into a coherent, coordinated force against American trade pressure.

In recent weeks, BRICS members have been stepping up political contact, economic coordination, and even personal diplomacy. The irony? The US president’s “America First” tariff barrage may be laying the foundation for a far more consolidated BRICS front -- the nightmare scenario for Washington’s trade strategists.

Tariff assault on BRICS

Donald Trump’s latest tariff package is unusually broad and particularly tough on BRICS members. India and Brazil have both been hit with steep 50% tariffs on a range of goods, while South Africa faces a 30% duty on its mineral and metal exports. China has a temporary 90-day pause on new tariffs, expiring on August 12, after which more duties are likely if talks fail. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Indian imports to the US and another 25% as a “penalty” for buying Russian oil. He has also hinted at imposing similar tariffs on Beijing for its ties with Russia.

The strategy is classic Trump -- hit each country differently, offer selective relief, and try to prevent them from uniting. But recent diplomatic activity among BRICS nations suggests that this divide-and-pressure approach is starting to falter.

China’s quiet outreach to India

One of the more surprising developments has been Beijing’s soft diplomacy toward New Delhi. Relations have been frosty since the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes, but the US tariff squeeze appears to have nudged China into pragmatic engagement.

China voiced its opposition to the US announcement of tariffs against India. The Spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Guo Jiakun, in his press briefing while responding to media queries called the act an ‘abuse of tariffs’.

When asked on comments on Trump’s executive order to place an additional 25 percent tariff on India for its purchases of Russian oil, he said, “China’s opposition to the abuse of tariffs is consistent and clear.”

“China opposes the US politicizing tech and trade issues and using them as weapons to maliciously blockade and go after China. The US should earnestly protect the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese nationals,” he added.

Yu Jing, spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in India, criticised the Western media’s "who will replace whom" narrative between India and China as lacking substance. She instead emphasised the need for trust, dialogue, and cooperation between the two Asian giants. “In today’s complex landscape, it makes far more sense for both nations to deepen trust, manage disagreements, foster consensus, widen cooperation, and promote peace in Asia and globally,” she wrote.

Yu also shared a Global Times article reinforcing the message. The article accused some Western and Indian media of framing India’s economic rise as a race to surpass China, calling it a “rhetorical trap” that undermines both nations’ broader interests. It said China values its trade relationship with India and called for “win-win outcomes” through practical cooperation and shared development.

Beijing’s fresh overtures to New Delhi come at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit China later this month for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, where he is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting could mark a major diplomatic push to stabilise a relationship that has long been marred by border tensions and strategic mistrust.

Brazil steps in – Lula’s support to India

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, himself facing a crippling 50% tariff from Washington, has publicly signalled solidarity with India’s position on “unilateral trade aggression.”

He dialled PM Modi to discuss “imposition of unilateral tariffs”, exploring possibility of greater integration between the two countries. Backing New Delhi’s upcoming BRICS presidency, Lula accepted PM Modi’s invitation to visit India early next year.

Lula has rejected direct talks with the US president, saying they would only lead to “humiliation.” Notably, both Brazil and India are negotiating with the US to chalk out a trade deal.

Putin to visit India later this month

Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India as a penalty for the country's continued imports of Russian oil, accusing it of fuelling Moscow’s war machine against Ukraine.

The US President’s deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine or suffer severe economic punishment expires today, but it’s unclear how he plans to proceed amid new efforts toward a summit with Vladimir Putin and delicate trade negotiations with China. Trump is scheduled to meet Putin next week.

Amid Trump’s repeated threats to India over its ties with Moscow, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met Putin on Thursday, where the two stressed their commitment to a strategic partnership.

Russia has slammed Trump for "illegally" pressuring countries like India to cut trade ties with Moscow.

"We hear many statements that are in fact threats, attempts to force countries to cut trade relations with Russia. We do not consider such statements to be legal," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

"We believe that sovereign countries should have and do have the right to choose their own trading partners, partners for trade and economic cooperation, and to choose for themselves the forms of trade and economic cooperation that are in the interests of a particular country," he added.

Doval has confirmed Putin’s visit to India later this month, where the Russian President is expected to hold a meeting with PM Modi. The timing of the meeting – coming amid the ongoing trade tensions of Washington with both New Delhi and Moscow – is noteworthy.

India and Russia have enjoyed strong ties since the Soviet era, with trade and investment growing steadily. In the nearly four years since the war began, India has emerged as one of Russia’s top oil buyers, importing over two million barrels a day — about 45% of its crude needs by May 2023.

Modi’s first China visit since Galwan

In another significant diplomatic signal, Modi will soon travel to China -- his first visit since the deadly Galwan clashes. While border tensions are unlikely to disappear overnight, the symbolism of the trip is potent. It says that when faced with external economic threats, BRICS leaders are willing to compartmentalise disputes in favour of collective leverage.

For Trump, this is the exact opposite of the outcome he sought. Instead of playing Beijing and New Delhi off each other, his tariffs have given them a reason, and the political cover, to re-engage.

How Trump is crystalising BRICS unity

BRICS, often seen as a loose group with little strategic unity, is finding common cause under Trump’s tariffs. Facing US economic pressure, members now share a grievance, a need to coordinate against the impact, and an opportunity to position themselves as a counterweight to Western trade dominance. What was once a scattered grouping is beginning to unite with a clearer shared purpose.

Trump’s “divide and conquer” strategy is backfiring, instead pushing BRICS countries to come together. While the tariffs help him look tough on trade in the short term, they are costing the US long-term influence. Each new tariff is speeding up exactly what Washington wants to avoid: stronger BRICS cooperation, less reliance on the dollar, and a united stand in global trade talks.