Pakistan’s quiet inroads into Bangladesh: How a new anti-India playbook may be unfolding in the East

File Photo - Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (L) speaks with Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the D-8 summit in Cairo on December 19, 2024.

It’s been a year since Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took the reigns of a crisis-hit Bangladesh in his hands following the unprecedented collapse of the Sheikh Hasina-led government. Since then, Yunus has been rapidly reshaping the country’s foreign policy, and as a result, a new axis appears to be forming between Dhaka and Islamabad, which tends to undermine India’s strategic depth in the East and emboldens anti-India elements.

This shift, unfolding through diplomatic, military, and economic channels, is not merely symbolic. It has serious implications for regional stability, counterterrorism, and India's national security, particularly along the sensitive eastern and northeastern borders.

Deepening Pakistan-Bangladesh military cooperation

Defence ties between the two countries have significantly intensified under Yunus-led interim administration. The Bangladesh Navy’s participation in ‘Aman 2025’, a multilateral naval exercise hosted by Pakistan, marked the first major military deployment to Pakistani waters in over a decade. The presence of BNS Samudra Joy off Karachi was more than a symbolic gesture; it represented Dhaka’s willingness to integrate militarily with Pakistan under a new strategic vision.

More alarmingly, Bangladesh has placed large-scale defence orders with Pakistan, including 40,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, 2,000 rounds of tank ammunition, and 40 tonnes of RDX.

These procurements, which tripled from previous years, align with Bangladesh’s “Forces Goal 2030” modernisation plan. But the choice of Pakistan as a supplier, given its history of fomenting terror against India, sends a dangerous signal.

High-level visits raise red flags near India's sensitive borders

In a highly unusual move, Pakistan’s ISI Chief Lt Gen Asim Malik visited Rangpur – a region close to India’s vulnerable northeastern states – between late January and early February. This unannounced visit drew sharp attention in Indian security circles, given the ISI’s long history of supporting cross-border insurgency and terror groups.

Additional visits by senior Pakistani military officials to Ramu in southeastern Bangladesh, near the Myanmar border and Indian states like Mizoram and Tripura, point toward a possible military or intelligence coordination on border issues, potentially linked to the Rohingya refugee crisis or wider surveillance aims.

India cannot ignore the strategic value of these areas, which have been exploited in the past by groups like ULFA and HuJI.

Release of anti-India terrorists from Bangladeshi prisons

Upon assuming power, the Yunus government released several convicted anti-India terrorists, some of whom had direct ties to Pakistan-based terror groups. These include:

• Jashimuddin Rahmani (Ansarullah Bangla Team), who called for jihad in Kashmir
• Abdus Salam Pintu, convicted for assisting HuJI in terror attacks against India
• Lutfozzaman Babar, involved in smuggling arms for ULFA via Chittagong

Diplomatic and intelligence access to Bangladesh without oversight

Allowing visa-free travel for Pakistani diplomats and officials isn’t just a friendly gesture; it poses serious national security concerns. The agreement, signed by Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and a top Bangladeshi official, removes important checks that usually help monitor who enters the country.

Reports suggest this move could open the door for Pakistan’s spy agency, the ISI, to step up its activities in Bangladesh. This includes reactivating sleeper cells, spreading radical ideologies, and planning sabotage operations. Such developments could destabilise India’s eastern border, a region already vulnerable due to past links with foreign-backed insurgencies.

Revival of Pakistan-Bangladesh trade: Undercutting India

Bangladesh has restarted direct trade with Pakistan for the first time since 1971, marking a major shift in its economic policy. Between August and December 2024, trade between the two countries rose by 27%, driven by relaxed inspections on Pakistani goods, the arrival of Pakistani ships at Bangladeshi ports, and the launch of a joint business council to boost trade ties.

This growing partnership comes as trade with India dropped by 9.5% during the same period. The shift signals Bangladesh’s strategic move away from India, which could weaken India’s control over key supply routes, port access, and its broader influence in the region.

Education, culture and visa diplomacy

Pakistan has offered 300 fully-funded scholarships to Bangladeshi students and has restarted cultural and academic diplomacy through Track II channels. This includes visits by Pakistani artists, resumption of cricket ties and participation in regional dialogues.

While seemingly benign, this soft power strategy helps Pakistan build long-term influence in Bangladesh’s civil society, academia, and future policymaking circles, all while cultivating quiet anti-India sentiment.

A provocative warning from Pakistan’s military

In a chilling statement to The Economist, DG ISPR spokesperson Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry warned, “If India carries out military action like Operation Sindoor again, we will strike deeper — and we will start from the East.”

This is a direct and unprecedented threat, with clear implications: Pakistan sees Bangladesh, or India’s eastern flank, as a launchpad for escalation.

It also affirms India’s long-held fears about a two-front or multi-vector threat, with Pakistan potentially opening a new front via Bangladesh. The timing of the statement, just as military and diplomatic ties between Dhaka and Islamabad are tightening, cannot be ignored.

Bangladesh’s warming ties with Pakistan, exemplified by recent diplomatic overtures and public statements of goodwill, are raising red flags in New Delhi, especially in light of Pakistani Army spokesperson Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry’s veiled threat to India.

While Dhaka has so far remained officially neutral on these developments, its resumption of high-level engagements with Islamabad suggests a shift that could embolden Pakistan’s regional posture. The Pakistani military, which has been busy nurturing cross-border terrorism, may interpret Bangladesh’s outreach as a softening of regional isolation. This carries dangerous implications for India’s eastern flank, especially given past intelligence reports of Pakistan-based operatives attempting to use Bangladeshi soil for anti-India activities.

The timing is also sensitive. As India focuses on counterterror operations in the west, any Pakistani-backed intelligence or militant activity via Bangladesh could open a second front.