How US universities risk losing $1 billion in international student tuition under Trump’s immigration crackdown

How US universities risk losing $1 billion in international student tuition under Trump’s immigration crackdown

Dozens of US universities face the prospect of losing nearly $1 billion in tuition fees from incoming international students due to actions taken by the Trump administration, according to a Financial Times analysis of government and sector data. The sharp decline is being driven by stricter visa scrutiny, border detentions, and a wave of fear and uncertainty among prospective students from abroad.

International students have long served as both a financial lifeline and a source of global diversity for US higher education. But under President Donald Trump’s second term, that model is under threat as new restrictions and surveillance measures ripple through campuses and consulates.

Universities brace for a financial blow

Analysis of data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) found that 162 institutions — ranging from large research universities to smaller liberal arts colleges — are particularly vulnerable, with international students making up more than 15% of their student bodies. A 10% drop in new foreign enrolments alone could cost those institutions roughly $900 million in direct revenue, according to Shorelight Analytics.

If the same decline were seen among all current international students — a group contributing roughly $29.5 billion in tuition — the total financial hit could top $3 billion. The pressure is falling hardest on schools that have leaned into international recruitment as a way to offset falling domestic enrolment and federal funding.

“This is very much self-imposed pain,” said Joann Ng Hartmann of NAFSA, a leading association for international education. “We are putting yet another burden on students and schools pursuing their academic dreams.”

New restrictions and enforcement actions

International students are ineligible for US federal financial aid and tend to pay full tuition, making them a critical revenue source. But the Trump administration’s recent decisions — including widespread visa delays, scrutiny of students’ social media, and selective approvals favouring institutions with smaller foreign student populations — have stoked fear across campuses.

Some schools have already reported incoming students unable to obtain visas, while others are worried about future cycles. “The pressure is on us to have answers, and it’s very frustrating when you have none,” said Tim Crowley, provost of the University of Central Missouri, where 24% of students in 2023 were from abroad, mostly India.

Students and administrators have also raised concerns about being detained at airports or campuses. Even Colleen Hanycz, president of Xavier University in Ohio and a Canadian green card holder, said she was advised by her legal team not to travel back to Canada over the summer break for fear of being stopped upon re-entry.

Court battles and chilling effects

The administration’s crackdown has also extended to the legal front. Harvard University is currently challenging a federal attempt to revoke its ability to host foreign students, as part of a broader campaign targeting alleged antisemitism and left-wing bias on campus. Meanwhile, nearly 5,000 foreign students were deregistered earlier this year before being temporarily reinstated.

Such moves have created widespread anxiety among students, particularly from China, India, and Nigeria — three of the top countries sending students to the US Consular delays and limited emergency appointments have made the situation even more volatile.

Looking elsewhere

With uncertainty growing, many international students are turning to countries like Canada, Australia, and several European nations. Universities in those regions are reporting an uptick in foreign acceptances, as US schools scramble to offer remote or deferred options.

Joey Hughes of the University of the Ozarks — where nearly one-third of students are international — said the long-term risks are significant. “We’re prepared to weather some uncertainty in the short run,” he said, “but the long-term effects could be catastrophic.”

Visa processing only recently resumed under new State Department guidelines, but administrators say the timing may be too late to prevent this year’s enrolment dip. Institutions are working to fill gaps by extending offers to domestic students, but the tuition shortfall may still hit hard.

“It’s the topic nobody wants to talk about,” said one professor at a university with a high share of Indian and Chinese students. “But it’s keeping all of us up at night.”