Conservative hopes for a post-Francis papacy face realities of Vatican power dynamics

Conservatives hope for traditionalist pope, but chances appear slim.

In the days following Pope Francis’s death, a growing narrative among certain factions of the Catholic Church revolves around the hope that the next pontiff will represent a shift back to conservatism.

This expectation, especially prevalent in social media memes and quotes from conservative commentators, has highlighted figures like Raymond Burke, Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, and Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana as potential successors. These candidates are viewed as representatives of a passionate, traditionalist opposition to Pope Francis’s more inclusive and progressive papacy.

As The Washington Post reports, one such headline, “Conservative Wisconsin bishop who could become first American pope,” from the Daily Mail, focused on Burke, a staunch advocate for the traditional Latin Mass. The Rev. Gerald Murray, a conservative commentator, told Newsmax TV that the cardinals electing the next pope would “return to a more John Paul II-, Benedict-style and substance of governance in the church.” This sentiment has resonated with some American conservatives, eager for a shift in the Church’s direction after Pope Francis’s papacy.

However, close Vatican observers argue that this surge of hope for a hard-right papacy may be rooted more in wishful thinking than in the reality of the conclave’s power dynamics. While conservative factions are rallying behind candidates like Burke, Sarah, and Turkson, there is little evidence to suggest they have broad support within the College of Cardinals.

Alejandro Bermúdez, a longtime figure in American conservative Catholic media, told The Washington Post, “A large number of American conservative Catholics would basically dream of having Cardinal Burke as the next pope, but they’re disconnected to reality.” According to Bermúdez, the fervent hopes of this group may not align with the likely direction the conclave will take.

A senior Vatican official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, dismissed the prospects of conservative candidates like Burke and Sarah, stating, “There is no space for them in the [minds of] the vast majority of the cardinals. They’ve got zero chance.” This official also pointed out that Turkson’s removal from a senior Vatican position by Pope Francis in 2021 had significantly harmed his chances.

The Rev. Thomas Reese, an American priest and expert on the inner workings of the Vatican, further dismissed the speculation around ultraconservative frontrunners, calling it “nonsense.” Reese, speaking to The Washington Post, emphasized that about 80 percent of the current cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis and would not support a candidate who would undo his legacy. “They are not going to elect someone who is then going to stand up and say that the Francis papacy was a disaster and we’re going back to the old church,” Reese explained.

Reese believes the cardinals will likely choose a moderate candidate this time. But what exactly does “moderate” mean in this context? For some U.S. conservatives, it could imply a pope who reverts some of the more controversial policies of Pope Francis, particularly around the Latin Mass or LGBTQ+ issues.

The Rev. Robert Sirico, a Michigan-based priest and commentator, stated that U.S. conservatives would welcome a compromise on issues like the Latin Mass, which Pope Francis significantly restricted in 2021. “Overall, conservative Catholics would just like some clarity and theological substance from Rome,” Sirico said in an email to The Washington Post. “I have heard from ‘folks in the pew’ that they would also appreciate clear theological teaching on a host of matters rather than what appears to have been an obsession with politics.”

However, Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller, a longstanding critic of Pope Francis, cautioned against dividing the Church into “conservative” and “liberal” factions. He argued that the Church should remain united in its faith in Jesus Christ, irrespective of political labels. Müller told The Washington Post, “There’s one church, and the church is united in the faith in Jesus Christ.”

While conservative voices have been vocal in lobbying for a traditionalist pope, other senior church conservatives have worked behind the scenes to promote candidates with a more moderate or reform-minded agenda. Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, for example, is considered a serious candidate, though he was never part of the vocal anti-Francis faction.

Marco Politi, a longtime Vatican commentator, noted that much of the push for a conservative papacy is coming from “low-level helpers” of conservative cardinals who are trying to reshape the Church’s future. According to Politi, these efforts are meant to “intimidate the reformers” and promote the idea that Francis’s papacy was a “disaster.”

The fervor around conservative candidates like Burke and Sarah intensified after Pope Francis’s death was announced. On April 21, far-right influencer Ian Miles Cheong shared on social media, “Meet Cardinal Robert Sarah, who’s in the running to be the next Pontiff. He’s conservative, pro-life, anti-woke.” This was followed by a surge of social media posts and articles promoting the idea of a conservative pope, though without any concrete evidence of support from key political figures like U.S. President Donald Trump.

As the Vatican’s future direction is debated, the cardinals' forthcoming conclave will likely be influenced by both the deep divisions within the Church and the persistent hopes of traditionalists. It remains to be seen whether they will elect a leader who represents a hard-right turn or a more moderate path forward for the global Catholic community.