China's disappearing data: How Beijing is tightening control over the economic narrative

China's disappearing data

Not so long ago, economists, investors, and reporters could see a wealth of official statistics from China. Now, with rare exceptions, that window is shut fast. Whether real estate sales or teen unemployment, soy sauce output or cremation rates, hundreds of essential economic and social measures have disappeared from public sight, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The news blackout overlaps with China's growing economic woes: a weak real estate market, increasing debt, trade tensions with the US, and increasing uncertainty among Chinese consumers. Analysts explain that the trend indicates a concerted effort by authorities to control perceptions and downplay bad news.

Important indicators disappear in economic stress

Among the most significant omissions are figures for national land sales, youth unemployment, foreign investment, and social indicators such as cremations. In many instances, Chinese officials failed to provide a reason. In others, explanations were unclear or referred to other government ministries. For instance, following youth unemployment reaching a record 21.3% in 2023, Beijing suddenly ceased releasing the figure, issuing a significantly lower rate subsequently under a reworked methodology that left out full-time students.

GDP statistics have long been unreliable, with internal Communist Party reports and previous admissions by leaders like ex-Premier Li Keqiang indicating that officials tend to prioritize political goals over economic precision. Li notoriously explained to the US ambassador that GDP was "man-made" and he depended instead on electricity usage and rail-freight tonnage.

Economists turn to surrogate measures

As data suppression increases, economists are going outside the box to try to measure the Chinese economy. Some monitor satellite imagery of nighttime lights, traffic patterns from Baidu Maps, and cement output. Others examine social media updates or obituaries for indications of jobs, migration, and public health.

Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Rhodium Group have created models based on import and electricity data to estimate real GDP. Their estimates place China's 2024 growth at 2.4% to 3.7%, far from the official 5% rate.

Censorship goes beyond numbers

The crackdown extends to macroeconomic metrics. Since China dropped its zero-Covid policy, numbers for cremations went away, even as analysts projected between 1.3 and 2.1 million excess fatalities. Numbers for tuberculosis vaccinations—a birth-rate proxy—also disappeared. And as preposterous as it may seem, the dimensions of elementary school toilets ceased to be published for almost two years.

Some of the removals seem politically driven. A 2022 report showing high housing vacancy rates in 28 cities was withdrawn under pressure from the government. At about the same time, statistics on land sales—a critical indicator for local government revenues—were also suspended.

Investor confidence and global impact

The drought of data is frightening the world's investors. In 2024, during a sudden Chinese stock sell-off, the authorities suspended real-time publication of foreign capital flows. This added to the lack of transparency just when foreign investors were already retreating.

The obscurity makes investment choices and policy actions more difficult. Without transparent data, foreign firms, governments, and markets cannot properly diagnose China's health, increasing the likelihood of financial and geopolitical miscalculation.

The larger context

As President Xi Jinping tightens his grip and prioritizes stability, dominating the economic narrative increasingly seems crucial to Beijing. The plan might be self-defeating, however. Censoring information threatens to undermine confidence in China's institutions and discourage the very investment and innovation the country requires to roll back its slowdown.

In the meantime, those attempting to make sense of China's real economic landscape are forced to assemble a puzzle with increasingly more missing pieces each year.