MC EXCLUSIVE iPhone shipments set to surge even as economic headwinds shrink India’s smartphone market in 2025

iPhone shipments set to surge even as economic headwinds shrink India’s smartphone market in 2025

India’s smartphone market is headed for a contraction in 2025 after two years of steady growth, dragged down by rising unemployment, persistent inflation, and weak consumer sentiment amid economic uncertainty. However, even as Android shipments take a hit, Apple is expected to post strong double-digit growth for iPhones in India, bucking the broader market trend.

According to IDC’s preliminary forecast, exclusively accessed by Moneycontrol, smartphone shipments in India are projected to fall to between 145–147 million units in 2025, down 3-4% from 151 million in 2024, marking a single-digit year-on-year decline. This outlook contrasts with earlier estimates by other market trackers, including IDC, which predicted low single-digit growth for the year.

“The decline in annual shipments comes after two consecutive years of growth in 2023 (0.6%) and 4% in 2024 YoY. Rising unemployment, inflation, and volatile economic conditions will not see an immediate relief. Consumer sentiments are expected to remain muted through 2025,” said Upasna Joshi, Research Manager at IDC, in an exclusive interaction with Moneycontrol.

Despite the overall market contraction, IDC forecasts that Apple will continue to grow aggressively in India. “12 million iPhones shipped in 2024, which are expected to rise to over 15 million in 2025, led by affordable schemes, upfront discounts on previous generation devices, etc.,” Joshi said.

She noted that 2025 began slower than expected, with high inventory levels and subdued demand spilling over from the previous year, largely driven by rising device prices.

“The first quarter shipments already tanked by 6% YoY, with an anticipated single-digit decline for the second quarter too,” she added.

Globally, the smartphone market remained flat in the January–March quarter with 307 million units shipped. China saw 3% annual growth due to local subsidies, and the U.S. grew 8% on expectations of post-tariff price hikes. According to IDC data, India retained its position as the third-largest smartphone market.

In India, extreme summer conditions have also diverted consumer spending toward white goods such as refrigerators, coolers, and air conditioners. Joshi said retail footfall has also declined, further weighing on smartphone sales.

Still, there is some hope in the second half of the year. “Better monsoons and festive seasons typically encourage consumer spending. Many buyers defer purchases to take advantage of discounts and special offers,” Joshi noted.

While the sub-$200 smartphone segment continues to dominate volumes, it is struggling with demand. On the other hand, the mid-range ($200–$400) and premium ($400–$600) categories are expected to see year-on-year growth in 2025, driven by increased shipments of (n-1) and (n-2) models.

A notable shift in early 2025 has been the resurgence of offline channels. For the first time since Q3 2019, offline sales outpaced online, with the online channel's share dipping to 42%.

“This demonstrates the ongoing omnichannel strategy by almost all brands — expanding into smaller tier towns and cities, opening more exclusive stores (Apple will come up with two more stores this year), deploying a greater number of on-shop promoters, offering retail/distributor channel schemes to flush old inventory, and stepping up ATL/BTL activities,” Joshi said.