World on track for record CO₂ emissions again in 2025

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Global emissions from fossil fuels are expected to hit a new record in 2025, with no clear sign of an overall decline yet. A new analysis suggests that while China’s pollution may finally be flattening, the rest of the world is still adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere each year, the New York Times reported.

Researchers from the Global Carbon Project estimate that burning coal, oil and gas, along with cement production, will pump about 38.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air this year. That is roughly 1.1 percent higher than in 2024 and comes ten years after governments signed the Paris Agreement, which assumed that global emissions would peak and then fall rapidly. Instead, they continue to edge up, making it harder and more expensive to keep global warming within agreed limits.

A slower rise, but still the wrong direction

Scientists point out that emissions are not growing as fast as they once did, largely because many countries have started shifting to cleaner energy. Solar, wind and electric vehicles are spreading quickly, and some governments have put in place tougher climate policies. Supporters of the Paris deal say this has avoided an even steeper rise in emissions.

Even so, the basic direction has not changed. A small group of big economies still dominate the total: China is responsible for about 32 percent of fossil fuel emissions, the United States for 13 percent, India for 8 percent and the European Union for 6 percent. Until those numbers start to fall together, scientists say, it will be very difficult to stabilise the climate.

China’s emissions show early signs of flattening

The most striking finding in the new report is a possible turning point in China. After years of rapid growth powered by hundreds of coal plants, Chinese emissions now appear to be almost flat. The study suggests they will rise by only about 0.4 percent this year and may even end up slightly lower, though there is uncertainty because official data arrives slowly.

China’s massive build-out of renewable energy is a big part of the story. The country is installing huge amounts of wind and solar capacity, and around half of all new cars sold there are now electric. Still, experts caution against declaring victory too soon. Policy changes that weaken incentives for renewables and new uses of coal in industry could push emissions up again. President Xi Jinping has promised to cut carbon dioxide and other pollution by at least 7 percent by 2035, but has not said how high emissions might go before they start to fall.

Mixed signals from the United States and Europe

In the United States, fossil fuel emissions are expected to increase by about 1.9 percent in 2025. A colder than usual winter pushed up heating demand, and power companies burned more coal as the country exported more natural gas. Over the longer term, U.S. emissions peaked years ago and are trending downward, but analysts expect the decline to be slower under the Trump administration, which has scaled back support for climate action and promoted expanded fossil fuel use.

Europe, too, has seen year-to-year swings driven by weather and energy supplies. Emissions there may have risen slightly, partly due to a cold February and lower output from hydroelectric dams. In other regions, emissions grew by about 1.1 percent, helped by a strong rebound in international air travel to pre-pandemic levels.

Small signs of progress, big gap to close

There are some encouraging trends. Over the past decade, 35 countries have managed to cut their emissions consistently, up from 21 in the previous ten years. Many have expanded renewables, improved energy efficiency or shifted away from coal.

Yet the message from climate officials at this month’s summit in Belém, Brazil, is that current efforts remain far too weak. Global emissions still need to move from “rising more slowly” to “falling quickly” if the world is to have a reasonable chance of meeting its temperature goals. As the U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell put it, progress is real, but nowhere near enough.