US Election 2020: How long will it take for results to come out?

The difference between the 2020 United States presidential election and the last three general elections in the county is that the winner was not clear on the election night.

Over 100 million early votes – both in-person and via mail ballots – were cast even before the Election Day. As counting of mail ballots is more laborious, a major delay in knowing the winner was expected.

Counting has nearly concluded in states like Florida where the local law allows votes to be processed even before Election Day. However, states like Pennsylvania don’t allow this. These states started processing votes on November 3 - which makes thing more difficult as many of these are battleground states that are crucial for both, Republican Party candidate and incumbent President Donald Trump, and his Democratic Party rival Joe Biden.

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As of 9.30 am Indian Standard Time of November 5, Biden was leading the Electoral College race with 253 votes against Trump’s 214. Multiple news organisations and pollsters have called the state of Arizona for Biden, which takes his tally to 264 – six short of what is required for him to win the presidency.

While counting is still on in many states (like Oregon), those numbers are more or less inconsequential in terms of larger math (and insufficient to change the electoral vote situation). The focus is now on states that can swing either towards Biden or Trump.

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How many votes are remaining in the battleground states?

Arizona: 14 percent remaining
Nevada: 14 percent remaining
North Carolina: 5 percent remaining
Pennsylvania: 11 percent remaining
Georgia: 5 percent remaining

According to The New York Times, officials in Maricopa County have said they will release a batch of results after today before 1.00 am ET (11.30 am IST), and another release tomorrow evening (dawn in India).

Officials in Pennsylvania had earlier said that they expect all votes to be counted only by November 6. There are no clear timelines for Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, even as counting continues.

All this is under the assumption that no court order temporarily halts the process. The Trump campaign has already moved the courts in three states, including Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Why can’t they declare a winner right now?

Both Trump and Biden still have multiple pathways to reach the 270 Electoral College votes mark. Both are leading in more than one battleground state. But the lead margins are changing and narrowing.

As of 10.00 am IST, Biden was leading in the key battleground state of Arizona by about 79,000 votes and in Nevada by about 7,600 votes. Trump is leading in Georgia by 31,700 votes and in Pennsylvania by 1.64 lakh votes. Together, 68 electoral votes are up for grabs in these few states. Thus, every vote could make a difference.

Also read | Explained: Battleground states and why they matter

What else is contributing to the delay?

The Trump campaign has sought a recount in Wisconsin after the state turned ‘blue’ from ‘red’ over a few hours as more legal early mail ballots were counted. The deadline to complete the recount is no later than 13 days from the point a recount is ordered. Similarly, reports suggest that the Trump campaign could seek a similar recount in Nevada and Arizona.

If the first results from these states are close, both sides would watch the recount more closely – leading to further delays.

As Biden is closer to the 270-mark, a win in any of the remaining states (except Alaska), would ensure his victory – unless it’s legally contested by Trump.

Also read | Explained: Why the result may swing from ‘red’ to ‘blue’ as counting progresses