US Election 2020 | Explained: Why the result may swing from ‘red’ to ‘blue’ as counting progresses

It may not end up the way it started. That’s what a number of psephologists are claiming ahead of the 2020 United States presidential election result.

Experts are predicting that the Republican Party candidate and incumbent President Donald Trump could lead in the initial hours of counting on November 3, only for Democratic Party candidate and former vice president Joe Biden to outpace his rival in the days to follow. This is likely to happen in battleground states that have seen high early voting, especially via mail ballots.

It is now abundantly clear that the election result will not be known immediately this time, like it was in 2008, 2012 and 2016. Thus, as counting happens over many days, many of these crucial states could turn ‘blue (Democrat-leaning)’ from ‘red (Republican-leaning)’.

Follow LIVE updates of the 2020 US presidential election result here

Why are we expecting result trends to switch from red to blue with time?

With more than 9.2 million COVID-19 cases and over 230,000 deaths, the United States is the worst-affected country in the world due to the novel coronavirus pandemic. Thus, political parties in the United States were urging voters to vote via mail ballots as part of the early voting process, to avoid queues. This push for early voting came mainly from the Democratic Party, but Republicans eventually started urging their voters to also vote early. Trump himself voted early in Florida.

As a result, a significant chunk of voters who have already cast their ballots are believed to Democratic Party-leaning. While some Republicans may have also voted during early voting, a significant number is expected to vote in-person in polling stations on November 3.

These early voting numbers aren’t small. The US Election Project pegs the number at about 98.7 million as of November 2. Plus, about 29.1 million mail ballots are yet to be returned to polling authorities. That should happen over the next couple of days. Over 100 million votes would have been cast and recorded even before Election Day. Voters would have already cast more than 71 percent of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election.

Counting of mailed ballots is more laborious than in-person votes and so it is expected to take more time. Experts believe that there is a chance that votes that have gone to Trump would be counted quicker as a significant chunk would have been cast on Election Day. But, as votes that have gone to Biden are predominantly mailed ballots (according to projections), their counting would be slower.

As a result, psephologists say Trump could be leading in many states on the evening of November 3 as more in-person votes are processed. But, with every passing day, Biden’s tally would rise and cut Trump’s lead. If opinion polls are to be believed, Biden’s popular votes would eventually cross that of Trump this way.

Also read: Why we're unlikely to know the winner on election night

Where is this likely to happen?

We are likely to see this play out in states where there has been sizeable early voting. But, it will be more evident in states where counting is not allowed till Election Day.

States in the US have different rules regarding when counting can start. States like Florida, Colorado and Arizona had started counting votes in October. But there are others like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that can’t start counting until Election Day. That’s where the aforementioned trend could be most visible.

State officials in Pennsylvania have said that it could take until November 6 to finish counting most ballots. Citing example of the June 2 presidential primary in Pennsylvania, US election analytics website FiveThirtyEight has predicted that the battleground state could see a big shift in terms of which party is favoured in the vote tally.

Also read | Explained: Battleground states and why they matter

Is there a chance that it does not play out this way?

Yes. These predictions are based on three assumptions: Biden holds an overall edge over Trump (according to opinion polls), more Democratic voters have voted early than Republicans, and that voters loyal to the Grand Old Party (GOP) will turn out in large numbers on Election Day. The theory may not work if any of these factors don’t hold.

Also read: A frazzled world holds its breath while the US chooses its leader

What will Trump and Biden do about this?

If this theory holds and if counting was stopped after election night, Republicans could be leading in terms of popular vote as Democratic votes have not been counted.

While Trump has denied that he is planning to prematurely declare victory, he has hinted that he is gearing up for a legal battle against a vote count that stretches past the Election Day.

A similar legal battle had played out in 2000 over counting problems in Florida. The tussle between then Republican candidate George W. Bush and Democratic candidate Al Gore led to the controversial 5–4 US Supreme Court ruling which ended the recount, leading Bush to win the crucial state of Florida by just 537 votes. This, in turn, helped Bush clinch 271 electoral votes — one more than the majority mark.

Thus, Democrats are also bracing for a legal battle to ensure all legal votes are counted.

Also read: How Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation as US Supreme Court justice may impact the election

Are voters worried?

Yes. Trump has declined to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he feels the result is fraudulent and has proposed mobilising troops under the 200-year-old Insurrection Act to put down unrest if he won.

In fact, a “non-scalable” barricade has been erected around the White House too, as officials expect large protest in an event that Trump claims a premature victory.

News reports suggest in the US are reporting business establishments preparing for protests by sealing doors and windows.

Follow Moneycontrol’s full coverage of the 2020 US presidential elections here