The Israeli military reported on October 1 that eight soldiers were killed during combat operations in Lebanon, marking the first casualties since Israel initiated its offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. This comes amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly following Iran’s missile assault earlier in the week, which involved nearly 200 ballistic missiles aimed at Israeli territory.
The recent escalation has raised concerns about a likely Israeli retaliation targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities -- a long-standing priority for the Israeli government. This incident marks the second direct attack by Iran on Israel; in April, Iran launched a major assault involving approximately 300 drones and missiles. Israeli forces instantly retaliated by destroying an Iranian air defense radar installation.
Also Read | Murder for hire: Inside Iran’s proxy war with Israel in the West
Following the missile strike on October 1, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stark warning to Iran, asserting that no part of the Middle East is beyond Israel's reach amid ongoing military operations against Hezbollah. "With every passing moment, the regime is bringing you - the noble Persian people - closer to the abyss," he stated.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also urged decisive action against Iran, calling on the current government to "destroy Iran’s nuclear project, cripple their major energy facilities, and deliver a major blow to this terrorist regime."
The Israel-Iran Conflict: Overview
The ongoing conflict primarily stems from Israel's concerns over Iran's nuclear capabilities. Both the United States and the UN nuclear watchdog, as per an Eurasian Times report, had previously flagged that Iran operated a secret nuclear weapons program, which was reportedly halted in 2003. Iran, however, denied ever having such a program or any intention to develop nuclear weapons, as per the report.
Nearly a decade back, in 2015, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief through a deal with world powers. This agreement, nevertheless, ceased to exist in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the pact, pushing Iran to abandon its commitments.
Since then, Iran has significantly ramped up its nuclear capabilities, becoming the only non-nuclear weapons state to produce 60 percent enriched uranium, accumulating enough near-weapons-grade material for approximately three nuclear bombs.
The ongoing open hostilities display a significant shift from the covert operations that have defined conflicts in the region. A key example of such clandestine activities emerged in March 2024, revealing details of a 2020 sabotage operation targeting an Iranian nuclear facility.
The Shadabad workshop sabotage
On March 24, 2024, Iran International disclosed that a covert operation in July 2020 destroyed an "industrial production workshop" belonging to the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI). This incident had previously gone unreported and only emerged through leaked judicial and intelligence documents from a hacking group.
The reports alleged that the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad orchestrated the sabotage, hiring a group of nine Iranians to carry out the attack. They were reportedly provided with a blueprint of the Shadabad workshop and promised payment for setting it on fire. These Iranians reportedly received 2.7 billion rials (approximately $10,000) from an anonymous individual claiming to be a disgruntled creditor seeking revenge, with additional payments promised for carrying out the attack.
The Shadabad workshop was identified as a "covert" facility that had not been disclosed to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and is situated in an older area of District 18 in southwestern Tehran. The group of attackers, led by Masoud Rahimi and his brothers, managed to infiltrate the site, subdue the guard, and ignite various pieces of equipment inside, as per the Eurasian Times report.
What unfolded after Shadabad attack
The arson quickly turned into a significant national security issue for Iran, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei demanding severe punishment for the perpetrators. The suspects were arrested and charged with acts against national security due to their alleged cooperation with Israel. Many of those accused, however, had no awareness that their target was associated with Iran’s covert nuclear operations, according to the report.
While initially charged with severe offenses, the accused were acquitted of confronting the Islamic government. The primary defendant, Masoud Rahimi, however, received a 10-year prison sentence.
Israel's 'silence'
The Israeli government has, in the meantime, remained silent following these developments. On May 1, 2018, Netanyahu revealed that Israel had, in a remarkable intelligence operation, acquired extensive documentation detailing Iran’s nuclear program. However, after the Shadabad incident, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office did not comment on the situation, as per the Eurasian Times report.
In the wake of the Shadabad incident, the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, former head of Iran's Ministry of Defense Research and Innovation Organisation, occurred on November 27, 2020. This came as another significant blow to Iran’s nuclear program, with Fakhrizadeh being identified by Israel as a key figure in Iran's nuclear ambitions.
A March 2024 report from the Institute for Science and International Security highlighted uncertainties surrounding the purpose of the Shadabad workshop, noting that if it had been involved in centrifuge research and development or component manufacturing, it should have been declared under monitoring provisions of the Additional Protocol and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Iran was still purportedly implementing at the time.
Will tensions flare up?
The recent clashes between Israel and Iran suggest the region may be on the brink of a new phase of direct conflict, with grave consequences for West Asia and beyond.
Israeli officials, post the October 1 attack, announced plans for a "significant retaliation" against Iran, which may include targeting the Iranian oil industry, air defense systems, and other strategic sites. There is also the possibility of targeting key Iranian figures, as Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is reportedly in hiding following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. Additionally, Israeli officials warned that if Iran retaliates, "all options will be on the table," including the potential destruction of Iranian nuclear sites.
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