Two years ago in 2020 on October 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Donald Trump called for an "immediate cessation of hostilities." "We also call on the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to immediately commit themselves to resume negotiations on the substance of the settlement in good faith and without preconditions," a joint statement from the three world leaders said.
The three were speaking as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which was founded in the early 1990s to try to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Today, the world is witnessing their failure to broker peace in the three-decades-old territorial disputes and unrest of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
After 32 years and 26 days of unrecognised independence, and one more flare-up last month, Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist.
What happened?
President Samvel Shahramanyan’s decree called for all institutions and organisations of the Republic of Artsakh, which is not recognised internationally to dissolve from January 1, 2024. “The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) ceases its existence,” read the decree.
As a result of a lightning attack by Azerbaijani forces that returned Karabakh to Azerbaijani control, a mass exodus by Karabakh's 120,000 Armenians toward Armenia began despite Azerbaijan's assurances of safety, fearing persecution and ethnic cleansing.
According to the United Nations, although more than 100,000 refugees have arrived in Armenia, thousands more endured long delays at the border.
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"Many are hungry, exhausted and need immediate assistance," Filippo Grandi, head of the UN refugee agency UNHCR, said on social media late on Friday. "International help is very urgently required."
The mass exodus is a result of the Azerbaijani military offensive to conquer the breakaway region last Tuesday, forcing the local leaders to dissolve their three-decade-old unrecognised state under Russian mediation. The exodus of ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh not only marks the end of decades of conflict but potentially the end of centuries of Armenian presence in the region.
The Nagorno-Karabakh Conundrum
The region in question is officially acknowledged as a part of Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, for the last thirty years, a considerable portion of it has been controlled by ethnic Armenians. Situated in the mountainous South Caucasus between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, this area is at the heart of one of the world's most protracted conflicts.
How it all started?
Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a bloody war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and it has been the trigger for further violence in the years since.
In the 1920s, Armenia and Azerbaijan were incorporated into the Soviet Union. However, Azerbaijan controlled the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which had a majority Armenian population. In the late 1980s, as the Soviet Union started to crumble, Nagorno-Karabakh's regional parliament voted to become a part of Armenia. Azerbaijan tried to quash the separatist movement, while Armenia backed it.
This sparked ethnic clashes and a full-scale war after both countries gained independence from Moscow. Consequently, there were years of violence and hardship.
In 1988, Karabakh officials passed a resolution declaring their intention to join the Republic of Armenia, which led to fighting as the Soviet Union began to crumble. This resulted in the First Karabakh War during which approximately 30,000 people were killed over six years of violence until the Armenian side gained control of the region in 1994.
Cut to the year: 2020
In September 2020, a conflict erupted in Nagorno-Karabakh causing military and civilian casualties in both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijan made significant progress during the war reclaiming all occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and capturing one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh, including Shusha and Hadrut. The war ended on November 10, 2020, with a trilateral ceasefire agreement signed by Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia, which required Armenia to return all remaining occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh.
Since December 2020, Nagorno-Karabakh has been under blockade due to a military checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, which was set up by activists supported by Azerbaijan.
As a result of this blockade, the import of essential items such as food, fuel and medicine to Nagorno-Karabakh has been prevented causing the residents to fear for their survival.
Last week, the blockade was lifted only to allow residents to flee the area.
The final straw
Azerbaijan launched its offensive on September 19, firing missiles and drones at the regional capital of Stepanakert in what marked the start of a third war fought for control of the region in as many decades.
Under the Soviet Union, of which Azerbaijan and Armenia are both former members, Nagorno-Karabakh became an autonomous region within the Republic of Azerbaijan.
Also Read: Azerbaijan has won Nagorno-Karabakh, but a bigger test is just starting
Many Karabakh Armenians were given the choice to either become Azerbaijani citizens or leave, which has been a longstanding policy of Azerbaijan. However, rather than submit to the rule of Baku, the majority of the population made the difficult decision to leave their ancestral home, resulting in tens of thousands of people fleeing the region.
Is Armenia ready to take in the refugees?
During a speech on Sunday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan expressed a willingness to welcome the people of Nagorno-Karabakh with open arms.
However, it is unclear how well-prepared Armenia, with a population of 2.8 million, is to accommodate up to 120,000 refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh.
Many of those fleeing have found temporary refuge in camps set up in the border towns of Goris and Kornidzor. As the area is experiencing an influx of people trying to escape, fuel stations are becoming inundated. Last week, an explosion at a fuel depot in Nagorno-Karabakh killed at least 68 people and over 100 are currently missing, according to separatist authorities.
Despite these uncertainties, Armenians from the conflicted region are determined to flee. Given the region’s history, they have expressed concerns about violence and ethnic cleansing.
According to a 2022 State Department report, evidence was found of Armenian graves being desecrated by Azerbaijani soldiers as well as “severe and grave human rights violations” against Armenian ethnic minorities, including “extrajudicial killings, torture and other ill-treatment and arbitrary detention, as well as the destruction of houses, schools and other civilian facilities.”
Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said he expects there will be no Armenians left in Nagorno-Karabakh in the near future.
However, Azerbaijan has said it wants to integrate the region's population as "equal citizens" and dismissed allegations of ethnic cleansing levelled by Armenia.
The country's president, Ilham Aliyev, also said that Azerbaijanis, who were displaced from the region in the decades-long conflict should have the option of returning.
The two countries have never signed a peace deal and despite negotiations over the years do not have formal diplomatic relations.
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