Chinese aggression, Ukraine war look set to top the agenda at G7, Quad summits

G7 summit

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the Group of Seven and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) summits in May --- meetings where China’s aggressive rise in the Indo-Pacific will be in focus.

While the two summits are taking place in the backdrop of the devastating Ukraine war, they also come in the midst of concerns in the region over China’s aggressive policy towards Taiwan and other countries with which Beijing has territorial disputes.

For India, it comes at a time when, despite several rounds of negotiations, China has declined to disengage its troops from areas on the Sino-Indian border occupied unilaterally by Chinese troops by breaking the status quo.

Modi will first attend the summit of the G7, grouping of the world’s most developed economies, in Japan on May 23. He will travel to Australia thereafter.

Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and the European Union are members of G7.

India is not a member of the G7, but Modi has been invited to the summit by the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the host.
Since all G7 countries are also members of the G20, Modi has frequently engaged with them.

He will meet them again in New Delhi after a few months when India, which has the rotating presidency of the G20 this year, hosts the summit.

The Indian Prime Minister will travel to Sydney on May 24 for the Summit of the Quad, in which India along with Australia, Japan and the United States are the four members.

Ukraine war, Chinese aggression

At the G7 Summit in Japan, the ongoing Ukraine war, which is expected to get more violent in the coming days as Russian and Ukrainian forces try to gain the upper hand before they come to the negotiating table, will certainly be in focus as the bloc has a predominance of western countries.

But since it is being held in Asia, it cannot but also discuss China’s aggression which is more real for countries in the region.

If earlier meetings of the G7 are an indicator, then the leaders at the summit are likely to reiterate their call for firmly rejecting “unilateral attempts” to change the status quo.

At last month’s foreign ministers’ meeting of the G7, Japanese foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi told his colleagues they must "firmly reject unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force.”

Though much of the statement was aimed at Russia, the appeal can find the broadest acceptance even among countries outside the G7 as it not only refers to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but at any unilateral attempt to change the status quo.
Like India, many countries in the region are involved in territorial disputes with China and are facing its aggressive policy to unilaterally change the existing status quo.
In a statement, Hayashi said it was important to maintain unity among the G7 and other like-minded countries and to continue support for Ukraine.

Quad summit

The ministers stated that Russia must withdraw all forces and equipment from Ukraine immediately and unconditionally.
Chinese aggressive policy in the region will also figure at the Quad Summit in Sydney.

A statement released by the Australian government said: “Australia, India, Japan and the United States share a vision for an open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific that is governed by accepted rules and norms, where we all can cooperate, trade and thrive.”

This is the first time Australia is hosting a Quad summit. The United States President Joe Biden, Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Prime Minister Modi will be present.

“Every year, the four Quad Leaders meet to discuss the region’s most pressing challenges and advance the Quad’s positive and practical agenda,” the Australian statement added.

It said, “The 2023 Sydney Quad Leaders’ Summit will showcase the Quad’s enduring contribution to the region and the tangible benefits we are delivering for Indo-Pacific partners.”

How to deal with China

It will be interesting to note the final statement of the G7 and its references to China.

The ongoing Ukraine war and the economic pressure in Europe have divided opinion among countries on how to deal with China.

While some are supporting the US policy of adopting a tough line on China and cutting off its access to advanced technology, some leading European countries like France and Germany are keen to engage with China to change its behaviour.

Instead of joining ranks with the US, they argue Europe should not get involved in the Taiwan crisis.

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said that in the event of conflict with China on Taiwan, “Our concern is to de-escalate.”

She added: “We must also make it clear that we would not accept a military escalation.”

Baerbock said: “Nobody in the world wants a new bloc confrontation.”
She felt the G7 countries sought to “promote cooperation based on fair rules around the world.”

Therefore, there could be indirect references to China and its aggression in the Indo-Pacific region in the G7 statement.
But the gathering of the world’s richest countries could avoid issuing statements that may strain future ties with Beijing, especially when they are trying to revive their economic partnership with China.