India predicts searing heat in threat to lives, power supply

India predicts searing heat in threat to lives, power supply

India forecast hotter-than-usual temperatures over the coming months, raising the risk of water shortages, crop damages and higher coal use to avoid power blackouts in the planet’s most populous nation.

Heat waves are expected for 10 to 20 days in different areas during the three-month period ending June 30, against a normal of four to eight days, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said at a briefing in New Delhi on Monday. Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, he said.

The prediction comes at a time when the world’s biggest democracy is preparing to hold general elections between mid-April and early June — a period when the mercury often crosses 45C (113F). There could be a greater threat to human lives as heat strokes, which kill dozens of people every year in the South Asian nation, could hit participants at political rallies.

Climate change is making India vulnerable to extreme weather events, with the country of 1.4 billion people facing increased occurrences of floods, cyclones, droughts and heat waves. The scorching sun will not only reduce the availability of drinking water but also drain moisture from the soil, a potential threat for some summer crops such as pulses and oilseeds. The city of Bengaluru, home to the $194 billion IT services industry, is already struggling with water shortages.

However, the impact on winter-sown wheat crops is likely to be limited as the plants have matured and harvesting has started in many states. A bumper output, as the government predicts, could prompt authorities to ease export restrictions that have been in place since 2022.

The weather outlook will put more pressure on energy companies. The peak electricity demand, which is estimated to surge to a record 250 gigawatts this summer, may rise further if heat waves prolong. The power ministry has asked plants to continue importing coal to make up for any shortfall in local supplies.

Reserves of coal, which accounts for about three-fourths of electricity generation, at power plants have jumped 38% over the past year and can last for 18 days on average, power ministry data show. Still, inventories are below the mandated levels.

More From the Briefing:

Above-average maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country in April

Heat wave days are expected to be more than normal during the April-June season in many areas of central and eastern India, northwestern plains and the southern peninsula

Average rainfall is seen normal this month, with precipitation forecast to be 88% to 112% of the long-period average

The strength of El Niño weather pattern has been weakening since the start of the year. Moderate conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific at present

Models also indicate the development of La Niña during the June-September rainy season