Space jam: Scientists warn of collisions as satellite numbers hit critical levels

At the current rate of launches, experts caution we may hit that ceiling well before 2050.

Look up at the night sky and there’s a good chance you’re staring at more than just stars. As of May 2025, Earth is being circled by over 11,700 active satellites, a number that’s climbing with astonishing speed. Data cited by Live Science revealed that more than 2,800 satellites were launched in 2024 alone, amounting to roughly one new launch every 34 hours.

Much of this orbital rush is being driven not by governments, but by private space giants, with Elon Musk’s SpaceX leading the charge. The company’s ambitious Starlink programme has already deployed more than 7,400 satellites, accounting for nearly 60 percent of all operational satellites currently in orbit.

The surge is largely fueled by the rise of “mega constellations”, vast networks of satellites designed to deliver global internet and communication services, particularly in remote and underserved regions. Besides Starlink, other major contenders in the orbital broadband race include Amazon’s Project Kuiper, the UK-based OneWeb, and a number of fast-expanding Chinese ventures.

But while these projects promise to bridge digital divides, they’re also triggering serious concerns about space sustainability.

The region most affected is low-Earth orbit (LEO), the atmospheric layer extending up to 2,000 kilometres above the Earth’s surface. Scientists warn that LEO has a “carrying capacity”, a threshold beyond which safe satellite operations become increasingly difficult due to congestion and the risk of collisions. That number is estimated at around 1,00,000 active satellites.

At the current rate of launches, experts caution we may hit that ceiling well before 2050.

Astronomer Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics estimates the total satellite population, including inactive or defunct units, has already reached approximately 14,900. And as more commercial players enter the space race, that number is expected to explode.

The implications are far-reaching. Beyond the immediate risks of in-orbit collisions and space debris, there are growing concerns over radio interference, light pollution affecting astronomical observations, and questions around regulatory oversight.