Shah Rukh Khan-starrer Dunki clashing with Salaar starring Prabhas took an ugly turn when negotiations for show distribution in theatres for the two films did not come to a consensus.
While the situation seems to have settled down, the clash will come at a cost, say experts.
"The competitive scenario between the two movies, although generating excitement, might slightly impact the individual earnings of each movie, similar to what happened in the case of Animal and Sam Bahadur releasing on the same day earlier this month, said Devang Sampat, CEO, Cinépolis India.
Dunki will be in cinemas starting December 21 while Salaar will release the next day on December 22.
Also read: Dunki vs Salaar: A battle for screens, stardom and contrasting ideas of the mainstream
Impact of the clash
"Two big films coming together, there will be a dent of around 10 percent. In addition, there seems to be the problem of no equal division of shows for the two films which will affect the impulse buying behavior of audiences as advance booking in many single screens for the two films have not opened," said Girish Johar, producer and film business expert.
A distributor pointed out that while exhibitors planned to distribute shows equally to both films which is usually the case when there is a clash, the team of Dunki had asked for all shows in single screens in the North. This did not go down well with the makers of Salaar who then took the call of not releasing the film down south across PVR Inox and Miraj multiplex chains as the two exhibitors favoured Dunki in terms of show distribution, according to a statement by Hombale Films, the makers of Salaar. The latest update is that the top chains are working towards equal distribution of shows without favouring any particular film and after the release shows will be allotted depending on the performance and footfall of the films.
The show-sharing confusion did not go down well with the audience resulting in an uproar on social media with some moviegoers posting on X images of cancelled movie tickets.
Despite the controversy, exhibitors are expecting big numbers from the two movies. In terms of booking, Salaar is leading the race currently with Rs 12.51 crore across 6,410 shows and Dunki has collected over Rs 10 crore in advances across 12,607 shows, according to reports.
Also read: From KGF2 to Prabhas' Salaar, Hombale Films to offer more pan-India releases
Big business
"Both the films will do well at the box office and we are expecting Dunki and Salaar to do upwards of Rs 300 crore for the four-day weekend across all cinema chains, across all languages," said Rahul Puri, MD, Mukta A2 Cinemas.
Puri is expecting the occupancy level to be in the range of 60-65 percent for both films combined. "For the four-day long weekend we are looking at around 1.3 lakh admits for the four-day weekend. The advances are very promising for both the films," he said.
The advance bookings for these films have been promising, said Sampat. "We expect both movies to add more than two million admissions in the last 10 days of the year. We expect both movies to have over 80 percent occupancy over the weekend. Together, these films in all languages (Hindi, Tamil, Telugu) are expected to contribute substantially to the December box office earnings, projecting a combined revenue estimate of approximately Rs 500 crore."
"The box-office between January to November 2023 stands at Rs 10,252 crore. With Animal's performance in the first two weeks of December, the total gross box-office collection for 2023 has already crossed the Rs 11,000 crore mark, making it the highest grossing box-office year till date. Salaar and Dunki (releasing in the last 10 days of 2023) provide 2023 a chance to cross the Rs 12,000 crore mark at the box-office, an unprecedented milestone," said Sanket Kulkarni, Head, Business Development (Theatrical), Ormax media.
Also read: Box office: Animal is a runaway success, with India collections nearing Rs 500 crore
He added that 2023 has witnessed a good resurgence, as far as single-screen inclusive content is concerned. "The biggest hits of the year like Gadar 2, Pathaan, Jawan, Tiger 3 and Animal were all single-screen inclusive films, with Gadar 2 earning almost 50 percent of its gross collections from single screens. Even Animal's over Rs 52 crore first-day collections are a testament to the box-office potential available if the single screens are on board for a film. Owing to the proven track record for these films, the single screens will get an extra push for the last two big releases of the year, Salaar and Dunki," he said.
Salaar is estimated to do a lifetime business of Rs 500-550 crore in India and Dunki's total collection in the domestic market is expected to be in the range of Rs 350-400 crore.
"Situations like these (Dunki and Salaar clash), when there is abundant blockbuster content on the anvil, are like good issues that we like to face, as they bring in huge footfall for cinemas. We are looking forward to the busy phase starting from the Christmas weekend and stretching right into the new year with a lot of anticipation. Not only for Dunki and Salaar, but we are expecting great turnouts for Aquaman 2, said Gautam Dutta, Co-CEO, PVR INOX.
Also read: India box office to surpass pre-Covid business, all eyes on SRK's Dunki, Prabhas' Salaar
Muted Q3 FY24
However, the December quarter is expected to report a below-par performance, according to analysts. Occupancy is estimated to be muted at around 20 percent between October to November versus pre-COVID average occupancy levels of 32 percent for multiplex majors like PVR Inox.
On the other hand, December will drive occupancy to around 35 percent in Q3 FY24 led by films like Animal, Dunki and Salaar.
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