Monsoons – At least something was good in 2020

Healthy monsoon indicates a strong harvest this kharif season. Good soil moisture and water reservoir levels indicate a strong Rabi produce. That's positive for agri focussed companies

Gas price revision – Who gains, who loses?

Downward revision in gas prices negative for upstream gas players, but positive for downstream gas marketing companies, fertilisers, tiles and power sectors

Farm deregulation reforms – How they stand to bring about a systemic change

The implementation of agri reforms calls for the development of a parallel country-wide infrastructure for the sale and purchase of crops

Agri bill 2020 – The reforms and its implications for Corporate India

While we wait for the actual implementation of the farm bills, our preliminary analysis of the reforms suggests a positive impact on farming and Corporate India

Fed: Low for longer extends through 2023

Markets react to delta/change in events, numbers and narrative. Prospects of additional fiscal stimulus, geopolitical risks and uncertainty with respect to US elections will get more and more investor attention

New Fed monetary policy framework to allow lower rates for longer

The new monetary policy framework – “robust updating” - puts focus on broader and inclusive employment and is more tolerant of higher inflation before any hikes in interest rates are considered

A guide to navigate a frothy market: what to avoid, where to book gains and what to buy

While there are pockets of the markets that stand to gain in the post pandemic world, many of these stocks will have factored in earnings of many years to justify their current valuation

Apr-Jun earnings reports: The winners and losers of the ‘new normal’

Do keep an eye on our steady earnings analysis as it is important to know who will survive in style and who will not

Fed: There are things like the Virus which money can’t buy, for everything else it’s the US FED

This however doesn’t take away the risks. The virus is the central risk. It can jeopardise and delay the economic recovery, leading to more financial instability

Pharma: Trump’s executive orders may possibly provide better market access opportunities

Indian drugmakers such as Cipla, Cadila, Lupin, Dr Reddy’s, Sun Pharma and a few small-sized pharma companies such as Laurus Labs may benefit from a likely revamp of US medicare

Monsoon sows seeds of hope for agri companies

Timely monsoon, strong growth in sowing acreages and healthy reservoir level augur well for agriculture and Rural India

How to position your portfolio for the coming US elections

A potential change of US regime in favour of the Democrats can have a salubrious impact on the “equity risk premium” - as a more collaborative world would reduce risk.

The widening macro-market gap – Should this froth worry investors?

Will the market re-test the March lows? We do not think so. Investors should take advantage of the exuberance to get out of weaker businesses and wait for valuation to turn attractive in stronger ones

Investment strategy: A playbook for a bubbly stock market

From a market standpoint, loose fiscal and monetary conditions are the perfect ingredients of a raging bull market in equities

Which banks matter to the financial system?

Big five is what matters most to the financial system

Why are we paying so much for petrol and diesel when global prices have not risen so much?

What does the Fed’s stance imply for stock markets brimming with liquidity?

Fed’s dot plot clearly conveys a strong consensus for “lower for longer” rates. On top of that, the Fed ascertains that policy tools/stimulus measures would be used “forcefully, proactively and aggressively” as the need arise to support economy.

How history taught us to correctly predict the COVID-19 pandemic market bottom

The parity between bond and earnings yield is achieved at the Nifty level of 9133 – downside of 10 percent. This is the maximum downside that we see for the markets and investors should steer their investment decisions accordingly.

How dependent is India on China? Here is what trade data reveals

Import dependency on China for a range of raw materials (APIs, basic chemicals, agro-intermediates) and critical components (Auto, Durables, Capital goods) is skewed.

Which companies could gain as global supply chains shift from China – Part 3

Which companies could gain as global supply chains shift from China – Part 2

Despite RBI and govt intervention, the light is flashing red. What should investors do?

The big will get bigger as marginal competition finds it difficult to survive

Can liquidity fix the broken correlation between economy and stock markets?

The reset of globalisation: How big is it an opportunity for India Inc? (Part 1)

On the export front, the opportunity for Indian manufacturers are humongous if there is a sizeable shift in opportunities from China to India.

The stimulus has come and gone – What’s in it for the markets and investors?

Investors with less appetite for risk should stick to the Nifty