India's economic outlook gets a reality check in the finance ministry’s latest review. Amid resilience and risks, the report hints at what could drive—or derail—growth ahead
Urban consumption to get a leg up from the festive season and improvement in consumer sentiments, finance ministry said in its September economic review
The IMF forecast that the global output will expand 3.2 percent, 0.1 percentage point slower than its July estimate, and predicted that inflation will slow down to 4.3 percent next year from 5.8 percent in 2024
The economist, known for his consistent warning of economic crashes, acknowledged the pitfalls of past recession forecasts in a recent Project Syndicate note.
Brent crude futures were up 99 cents, or 1.3%, to $75.64 a barrel at 1102 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.74 a barrel, up 95 cents, or 1.4%.
The geoeconomic fragmentation in turn is leading to fragmentation in foreign direct investment and inward orientation. The geopolitical fragmentation is likely to affect the cross-border allocation of capital, international payment systems and asset prices
The threat of rising inflation seems to have abated in many parts of the world, thanks in part to interest rate increases from some central banks, experts said on the last day of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2023 in Davos.
About 20 percent of the economy accounts for nearly 80 percent of growth, while the remaining 80 percent contributes barely 20 percent, analysts said.
CEOs are largely positive about global economic prospects, but have adjusted or plan to adjust their risk management procedures considering geopolitical risk.
While the government has said that there is zero chance of a recession, the Reserve Bank of India’s tightening is expected to curb activities.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $1,747.19 per ounce, as of 0256 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,753.30.
Spot gold slipped 0.1% to $1,714.74 per ounce by 0541 GMT. The metal had settled 0.7% lower on Wednesday, snapping four straight sessions of gains.
The investment bank revised its Brent price forecast to $64.5 per barrel in 2020 from $59 earlier, although it expects prices to slip to $61.50 in 2021.
"In the coming three to five years... the economic situation will be even more arduous than everyone had expected," the e-commerce billionaire said at an annual meeting of the General Association of Zhejiang Entrepreneurs.
The world economy grew 2.2 percent in 2016, the slowest pace since the end of the 2008 financial crisis.
Besides, an increased spending on infrastructure development, largely by the government, is seen as the most important driver for a turnaround in the economic outlook for the period between October and March this fiscal, it added.
BoE expected to cut rates; eyes on stimulus package, economic outlook
Investment by firms in India is on the rise, and companies with a presence there say the region's second-largest economy is a challenging market to break into but offers rich rewards.
Speaking to the Indian Express newspaper, Moody's said, "The report was published by and is the view of Moody's Analytics as part of its economic outlook series. The report included a section observing political developments in the context of the political economic impact, and did not advocate any political agenda or perspective."
The economic outlook was further brightened by another report on Wednesday showing the trade deficit hit a seven-month low in September as exports rebounded, a tentative sign the worst of the drag from the stronger dollar may be over.
Expect FY16 gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 6.5% (FY15: 5.6%) based on its estimates that the industrial sector will grow 6.5% (3.6%), says India Ratings.
The IMF has warned that the world economy may never return to the pace of expansion seen before the financial crisis of 2008.
"Clearly public sentiment around India is positive, and it makes sense for companies to take advantage of that to raise capital at a lower cost than what they were able to do earlier," said Manpreet Gill, head of fixed income, currencies and commodities investment strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.
India Ratings expects India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to improve to 5.6% in FY15. The rating agency believes that unlike the recovery witnessed during the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, the FY15 recovery is likely to be gradual.
Given the market condition, there will be sellers only. Nobody would like to invest. On every fall, new positions are coming in, says Jitendra Panda, Head of Sales Broking at Capital First.