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Firm intervention by the central bank on Friday helped the rupee find some footing, but traders and analysts expect a depreciation bias in the near term.
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The RBI has been a player on both sides of the market and intervening as a seller and buyer depending on the situation. That said, the bias has been to soak up inflows into domestic markets, preventing an appreciation of the rupee.
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In the reporting quarter, Union Bank of India reported a sharp uptick in its treasury income. It rose over 101 percent on-year in April-June to Rs 775 crore.
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Data released by the central bank on June 23 showed purchases of foreign currency in April stood at $8.404 billion while net sales were at $700 million.
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Net purchases of foreign currency in February was $4.381 billion and net sales was $4.127 billion.
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The premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was 189.24 paise or 2.1527 percent on annual basis on April 19, against 211.64 paise or 2.2688 percent on annual basis, as per Bloomberg data
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The possible range for the Indian rupee could be 81.10 to 81.30, with 83.20 on the lower side and 80.90 on the higher side, forex dealers said.
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After a $5.2 billion drop in the week ended September 16, the reserves are at their lowest level since October 2, 2020
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The rupee sank to a new low of 81.26 against the dollar on September 23 in intraday trade, down from 80.87 in the previous session
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Despite most Asian units weakening sharply in July and August, the rupee showed resilience, even appreciating briefly in August, However, the US Fed’s latest rate hike, which was more hawkish than anticipated, has turned the tide decisively against the Indian unit
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Reduced sensitivity of rupee to the dollar index has occurred in conjunction with the still-high correlation of other Asia FX with the dollar
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Rupee depreciation has impacted the current account deficit and fuelled inflationary pressures but at the same time it has made Indian exports more competitive, according to experts.
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A consistent drop in premiums will accentuate depreciating pressure on the rupee, say experts
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The rupee had closed at a record low of 78.39 to the dollar on June 22 and is down over 5 percent in 2022
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The RBI has run off its short dollar positions and at the same time elongated its forward dollar purchases to manage the impact of its forex intervention on domestic rupee liquidity.
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The rupee crashed below the 70-mark in early trade to touch an all-time low of 70.10 against US dollar, a day after bloodletting in global markets due to worries over Turkish economic crisis and a sharp plunge in the lira.
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In an interview to CNBC-TV18 Devesh Divya, Asia FX Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank shared his reading and outlook on the currency market. He expects markets to remain volatile at least till the time that we see clear pattern emerge in terms of Brexit versus Bremain.
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Karvy Stock Broking has come out with its report on currency. The research firm expects USDINR pair to trade in a range of 61.30-61.75 levels for the day and recommend buying on declines.
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IIFL has come out with its fundamental and technical view on currencies. According to the research firm USD-INR SPOT prices has a support of 60.90 and resistance at 61.95
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According to Karvy, the USDINR pair is expected to trade in a range of 63.30-62.65 levels for the day. Rupee has resistance at 63.32. One can sell on rise, says the report.
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Though prices have gone up by about Rs 3,000 month-on-month, it has primarily been on the back of exchange rate fluctuations. In dollar terms, prices have not increased at all.
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Karvy Stock Broking has come out with its report on Indian rupee. According to the research firm, the pair is expected to trade in a range of 61.10-61.75 for the day. One can buy on declines, says Karvy.
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Indian diaspora's dollar investment may amount to 5 to 6 percentage points of annual investment returns for providing the hard currency needed to revive the rupee.
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Ashok Gautam, Senior Vice President & Head, Global Markets, Treasury, Axis Bank feels there is a lot of volatile at this point of time and at an appropriate level the RBI might step in.
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The rupee started stronger on Monday morning, but reversed and fell in mid morning trades after the weaker than expected PMI data and poor equity market performance.
